Telefonica CTO Enrique Blanco tells Harry Baldock,

All of the requirements they have today can be fully satisfied with 4.9G capabilities that we have in our network. This means that all the LTE-M and all the IoT requirements we currently have can be delivered using 4.9G. That's in terms of our customers' needs today. But, if you analyze what is going to happen over the next two or three years, in terms of delivering Industry 4.0 initiatives, those needs are going to evolve. We need to be ready. 

Blanco is among the half dozen most respected engineers in world telecom. He's been responsible for hundreds of millions of lines for Telefonica in Spain, England, Germany, and Brazil. He's been working on Edge networks and IoT for several years. He's right some new industrial uses will develop, but I expect limited impact. It's very expensive to retrofit a factory and relatively few new factories are being built. Even if the systems prove out, few factories are likely to be upgraded soon. Enrique is more optimistic and could be right. 

I've been horrified by the false claims about 5G from politicians, pundits, and especially the equipment vendors. At least for years, all large medical, public safety, IoT, and entertainment apps will run fine on any decent 5G LTE network. 5G is good stuff that adds important capacity. Consumers want it, especially as decent phones have fallen in price to $285-450. None of the "brave new world" uses will have much impact for years.

All the "studies" of economic returns from 5G are based on applications said to require 5G. Since most can be performed with 4G, these "studies," especially from Qualcomm, are not worth the electrons they come to us on.

Don't believe the hype.

 

dave ask

@davescomm

Rethinking Jan 27: Coronavirus could invalidate all projections. I reported on AIDS for 2 years. This could be worse because it spreads in air. Let us hope and pray.

Details on all 5G phones, as prices drop to $285 ** All actual 5G networks worldwide ** Facebook ordered to repost Italian fascist page. ** Apple China sales down 35%** Qorvo sees 300M 5G 2020 & 750M 2023 mmWave <10%

** Bharti demands India Gov more than double prices and enforce cartel. Sunil Mittal "Situation is dire. It is a matter of survival for everyone." ** Wi-Fi 6 meets ITU 5G criteria @stephenjcrowley ** Samsung $8B for Chinese memory plants ** Morgan paying billions for Altice fiber

Dec 10 Sprint bringing $300-500 5G phones to US 2020. Nokia, Lenovo, HMD ** H., Apple, and AMD doing 5 nm test runs on TSMC's 5 nm. Early results are 15-30% better than 7 nm ** AT&T low-band 5G built to >65% US. Speeds slower than 4G at launch. ** 

Verizon CEO Ronan Dunne: >1/2 VZ 5G "will approximate to a good 4G service" Midband in "low hundreds" Mbps ** CFO John Stephens says AT&T is going to cut capex soon. ** Huawei in 16 days sold 1,000,000 5G Mate 20s.  

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Welcome  Asia is installing hundreds of thousands of 5G radios and adding 5G subs by the tens of millions. The west is far behind. 200,000,000 in 2020

The demand is there, and most of the technology works. Meanwhile, the hype is unreal. Time for reporting closer to the truth.

I'm Dave Burstein, Editor. I've been reporting telecom since 1999. I love to hear from readers and say thank you when you find an error. daveb@dslprime.com

Also see

analysisbranch.com,

fastnet.news

huaweireport.com