Will the China price reach the rest of the world? Yes, and possibly soon. US$580 offers at least a 30% margin over parts and manufacturing costs, both of which are falling. 5G prices are headed under $300 in 2020 according to China Mobile, Huawei, and ZTE. 

I believe demand for 5G will explode as the price comes down. So I've started the 5G phone price watch to track the market. It's on 5gwnews.com, a site I'm bringing back now that 5G is real. First items:

July 30 Oppo sets the price of its iQOO 5G phone at RMB 4,000 yuan (US$580.) ZTE's Axon10 Pro 5G version is priced at RMB 4,999 (US$725.) Both are high-end phones using a Qualcomm 855 chip. Huawei's Mate 20X 5G will go for RMB 6,199 (US$900,) only $30 more than the 4G version.  

July 2019, phones appear in good supply, as do the parts required to make them. Three chipmakers are in production: Qualcomm (produced at TSMC's foundry in Taiwan,) Huawei (TSMC,) and Samsung (self-produced.) Both Samsung and TSMC have good capacity available at the most advanced node, 7 nanometres.

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CFO John Stephens says AT&T is going to cut capex soon.

Bharti in India has lost 45M customers who did not want to pay the minimum US#2/month. It's shutting down 3G to free some spectrum for 4G. It is cutting capex, dangerous when the 12 gigabytes/month of use continues to rise.

Huawei in 6 days sold 300,000 5G Mate 20s. Delivery begins on 8/16. 

China has over 50,000 upgraded base stations and may have more than 200,000 by yearend 2019. The growth is astonishing and about to accelerate. China will have more 5G than North America and Europe combined for several years.

5G phone prices are down to $580 in China from Oppo. Headed under $300 in 2020 and driving demand.

No one believed me when I wrote in May, 90% of Huawei U.S. purchases can be rapidly replaced and that Huawei would survive and thrive. Financial results are in, with 23% growth and increased phone sales. It is spending $17B on research in 2019, up > 10%. 

5G phones spotted from Sharp and Sony

NTT DOCOMO will begin "pre-commercial service Sept 20 with over 100 live bases. Officially, the commercial start is 2020.

 More newsfeed

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Welcome  1,800,000 Koreans bought 5G in the first four months. The demand is there, and most of the technology works. Meanwhile, the hype is unreal. Time for reporting closer to the truth.

The estimates you hear about 5G costs are wildly exaggerated. Verizon is building the most advanced wireless network while reducing capex. Deutsche Telekom and Orange/France Telecom also confirm they won't raise capex.

Massive MIMO in either 4G or "5G" can increase capacity 3X to 7X, including putting 2.3 GHz to 4.2 GHz to use. Carrier Aggregation, 256 QAM, and other tools double and triple that. Verizon sees cost/bit dropping 40% per year.

Cisco & others see traffic growth slowing to 30%/year or less.  I infer overcapacity almost everywhere.  

Believe it or not, 80+% of 5G (mid-band) for several years will be slower than good 4G, which is more developed.