Wei Leping of MIIT predicts, "In 2020, the country will reach 600,000 to 800,000 base stations deployed." Given the early results of 5G 2.5 and 3.5 GHz radios, I estimate 5G will cover at least 500,000,000 people and probably many more. The main areas of the largest 50 cities will be covered. 

5G phone prices will drop toward US$300 in 2020 according to both Huawei and China Mobile. The gap between 4G phones and 5G phones will drop toward US$50 or less. At those prices, it's reasonable to expect that many of the 300,000,000+ phones sold in China in 2020 will be 5G.

This estimate of 5G expansion may be low. Minister Miao Wei has urged the companies to accelerate. Wei Leping also projected 80,000 to 100,000 for 2019. Nomura's expectation for 2019 is 172,000, which seems more likely based on the limited information available.

The entry of China Broadcasting into 5G will also spur the telcos to go quickly.

dave ask

@davescomm

Details on all 5G phones, as prices drop to $285 ** All actual 5G networks worldwide ** Facebook ordered to repost Italian fascist page. ** Apple China sales down 35%** Qorvo sees 300M 5G 2020 & 750M 2023 mmWave <10%

** Bharti demands India Gov more than double prices and enforce cartel. Sunil Mittal "Situation is dire. It is a matter of survival for everyone." ** Wi-Fi 6 meets ITU 5G criteria @stephenjcrowley ** Samsung $8B for Chinese memory plants ** Morgan paying billions for Altice fiber

Dec 10 Sprint bringing $300-500 5G phones to US 2020. Nokia, Lenovo, HMD ** H., Apple, and AMD doing 5 nm test runs on TSMC's 5 nm. Early results are 15-30% better than 7 nm ** AT&T low-band 5G built to >65% US. Speeds slower than 4G at launch. ** 

Verizon CEO Ronan Dunne: >1/2 VZ 5G "will approximate to a good 4G service" Midband in "low hundreds" Mbps ** CFO John Stephens says AT&T is going to cut capex soon. ** Huawei in 16 days sold 1,000,000 5G Mate 20s.  

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Welcome  Asia is installing hundreds of thousands of 5G radios and adding 5G subs by the tens of millions. The west is far behind. 200,000,000 in 2020

The demand is there, and most of the technology works. Meanwhile, the hype is unreal. Time for reporting closer to the truth.

I'm Dave Burstein, Editor. I've been reporting telecom since 1999. I love to hear from readers, especially when you find an error. daveb@dslprime.com

Also see

analysisbranch.com,

fastnet.news

huaweireport.com