Telefonica Blanco 8 4 layers 230Enrique Blanco of Telefonica is collapsing his transport network from 8 to 4 layers. Lee Hicks of Verizon is "Ripping out 200,000 pieces of equipment as part of Verizon One Fiber." He is replacing them with one-tenth as many boxes. Cost and simplicity are the main goals, but latency is being dramatically improved as well.

I've recently discovered that the latency of the radios for the last 200 metres (the 5G NR) often is less important than the performance on the backbone. From the radio to the Internet typically takes 15 ms to 50 ms and more. 5G to the radio is now typically 10 ms, compared to 20 ms on LTE. That saves about 10 ms. 

A better backbone (or an Edge Cloud) can reduce latency by 10-30 ms. Today's routers are much more powerful and much faster. Like most incumbent telcos, Verizon's network was loaded with out of date equipment, some 20 years old. Most carriers are slowly replacing older gear. Verizon One Fiber is replacing almost everything.   Lee Hicks of Verizon is rebuilding that network with a goal of 5-15 ms.

(That number is mine. Neither Lee nor anyone else at Verizon has discussed a figure. I'm inferring it from the capabilities of the equipment.) That will generally save 10-30 ms, more than the improvement with 5G radios.  "At the end of the day, I'm going to have about a 90% reduction in routers in the network. I'm going to be left with a dramatically smaller amount of equipment. I'm going to have about 10% of what I have today by the time we're done." (Over the years, Verizon built separate networks for wireline, wireless, corporate data, ...)  One Verizon is delivering results. The new equipment "saves half" just in the first year. Overall, Verizon is reducing cost per bit by about 40% per year. As traffic growth slows towards 30%, margins are likely to expand.  The rebuild is producing an enormous impact on latency, although Verizon has never discussed the details. In addition, Verizon is deploying servers strategically throughout the network, often at aggregation points. They are using  Calix 40 gigabit NG-PON2 for backhaul with the AXOS operating system, about which I hear good things. I call Verizon's network the most advanced in the world because they are one of the few with much mmWave and are also rebuilding the backbone.

 p.s. New equipment from Ericsson & Huawei brings LTE very close to the speeds of 5G.

dave ask

Newsfeed

CFO John Stephens says AT&T is going to cut capex soon.

Bharti in India has lost 45M customers who did not want to pay the minimum US#2/month. It's shutting down 3G to free some spectrum for 4G. It is cutting capex, dangerous when the 12 gigabytes/month of use continues to rise.

Huawei in 6 days sold 300,000 5G Mate 20s. Delivery begins on 8/16. 

China has over 50,000 upgraded base stations and may have more than 200,000 by yearend 2019. The growth is astonishing and about to accelerate. China will have more 5G than North America and Europe combined for several years.

5G phone prices are down to $580 in China from Oppo. Headed under $300 in 2020 and driving demand.

No one believed me when I wrote in May, 90% of Huawei U.S. purchases can be rapidly replaced and that Huawei would survive and thrive. Financial results are in, with 23% growth and increased phone sales. It is spending $17B on research in 2019, up > 10%. 

5G phones spotted from Sharp and Sony

NTT DOCOMO will begin "pre-commercial service Sept 20 with over 100 live bases. Officially, the commercial start is 2020.

 More newsfeed

----------

Welcome  1,800,000 Koreans bought 5G in the first four months. The demand is there, and most of the technology works. Meanwhile, the hype is unreal. Time for reporting closer to the truth.

The estimates you hear about 5G costs are wildly exaggerated. Verizon is building the most advanced wireless network while reducing capex. Deutsche Telekom and Orange/France Telecom also confirm they won't raise capex.

Massive MIMO in either 4G or "5G" can increase capacity 3X to 7X, including putting 2.3 GHz to 4.2 GHz to use. Carrier Aggregation, 256 QAM, and other tools double and triple that. Verizon sees cost/bit dropping 40% per year.

Cisco & others see traffic growth slowing to 30%/year or less.  I infer overcapacity almost everywhere.  

Believe it or not, 80+% of 5G (mid-band) for several years will be slower than good 4G, which is more developed.