VZ ATT 5G Nonsense 230Eric Xu, current Huawei Chairman, concludes "consumers would find no 'material difference between 5G & LTE'.” Louise Lucas and Nic Fildes,  Financial Times He added, "Since 4G is robust, we don’t see many use cases or applications we need to support with 5G.” 

Last May, I reported similar thoughts from Telefonica CTO Enrico Blanco. In November, DT CTO Bruno Jacobfeuerborn,  FT/Orange SVP Arnaud Vamparys, and BT CEO Gavin Patterson chimed in. The politicians & marketers screamed "5G Revolution." The engineers knew better. 

Andrus Anders and Roberto Viola at the EU, as well as Jessica Rosenworcel & Ajit Pai in the U.S., are still lying to themselves and too proud to face their errors.

Latency:  Ericsson has promised LTE latency of 9 ms in 2018. AT&T's 5G latency is 9-11 ms.

Speed: 4G LTE 2018 is hundreds of megabits, peaking over a gigabit. 90% of 5G on the way is midband, the same hundreds of megabits. Only 10-20% of the first few years will be millimeter wave, often a gigabit.

Applications: 5G's main application around the world will be more capacity, a good thing for telcos. But most of the other claims are b______. 

  • Connected cars are already on the road, using lidar & radar, not the phone network. Xu points out, “even today we have the technology that can support autonomous driving”.
  • The talk of remote surgery is totally ridiculous unless you believe in operating from the beach. The wireless part of the transmission is only a small part of the speed.   From the local connection to the operating room will be 20-50 ms. Whether the wireless is 2, 5, or 10 ms. is a minor factor. 
  • IoT will rarely require speeds more than 100's of megabits. Most actually is kilobits. If there so many connections that LTE is overwhelmed, a local Wi-Fi or LTE picocell can handle almost everything.
  • VR experts tell me they are fine at 10-15 ms.
  • Outside the U.S., very little fixed wireless requires 5G speeds. AT&T and Verizon will use mmWave where they don't have decent broadband, about 75% of the country in each case. Nearly everywhere else, the telco covers the whole country with landlines.

"5G Revolution" is dead. Millimeter wave and Massive MIMO will be crucial to telcos going forward; midband spectrum will be important, running at LTE speeds and really LTE with a minor software tweak and a press release. Until 2018, it was called TD-LTE.

Verizon's D.C. rep, CTIA, has nonsense claims for 5G, based on 4G applications. 

 

 

 

dave ask

Newsfeed

The 3.3-4.2 spectrum should be shared, not exclusively used by one company, concludes an important U.S. Defense Innovation Board report. If more wireless broadband is important, sharing is of course right because shared networks can yield far more

It does work! Verizon's mmWave tests over a gigabit in the real world. 
The $669 OnePlus 7 Pro outclasses the best Apples and probably the new Galaxy 10 or Huawei P30 Pro. Optical zoom, three cameras, liquid cooling, Qualcomm 855 and more.
Korea at 400,000 5G May 15. Chinese "pre-commercial" signing customers, 60,000-120,000 base stations in 2019, million+ remarkable soon. 
5G phones Huawei Mate 20, Samsung Galaxy 10, ZTE Nubia, LG V50, and OPPO are all on sale at China Unicom. All cost US$1,000 to 1,500 before subsidy. Xiaomi promises US$600.
Natural monopoly? Vodafone & Telecom Italia to share 5G, invite all other companies to join.
Huawei predicts 5G phones for US$200 in 2021, $300 even earlier
NY Times says "5G is dangerous" is a Russian plot. Really.
Althiostar raised US$114 million for a virtual RAN system in the cloud. Rakuten, Japan's new #4, is using it and invested.
Ireland is proposing a US$3 billion subsidy for rural fibre that will be much too expensive. Politics.
Telefonica Brazil has 9M FTTH homes passed and will add 6M more within two years. Adjusted for population, that's more than the U.S. The CEO publicly urged other carriers to raise prices together.
CableLabs and Cisco have developed Low Latency XHaul (LLX) with 5-15 ms latency for 5G backhaul,  U.S. cable is soon to come in very strong in wireless. Details 
Korea Telecom won 100,000 5G customers in the first month. SK & LG added 150,000 more. KT has 37,500 cells. planning 90% of the country by yearend. 
The Chinese giants expect 60,000 to 90,000 5G cells by the end of 2019.
China Telecom's Yang Xin warns, "Real large-scale deployment of operators' edge computing may be after 2021." Customers are hard to find.
Reliance Jio registered 97.5% 4G availability across India in Open Signal testing. Best in world.

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Welcome On Oct 1, 2019 Verizon turned on the first $20B 5G mmWave network with extraordinary hopes. The actual early results have been dismal. Good engineers tell me that will change. Meanwhile, the hype is unreal. Time for reporting closer to the truth.

The estimates you hear about 5G costs are wildly exaggerated. Verizon is building the most advanced wireless network while reducing capex. Deutsche Telekom and Orange/France Telecom also confirm they won't raise capex.

Massive MIMO in either 4G or "5G" can increase capacity 3X to 7X, including putting 2.3 GHz to 4.2 GHz to use. Carrier Aggregation, 256 QAM, and other tools double and triple that. Verizon sees cost/bit dropping 40% per year.

Cisco & others see traffic growth slowing to 30%/year or less.  I infer overcapacity almost everywhere.  

Believe it or not, 80% of 5G (mid-band) for several years will be slower than good 4G, which is more developed.