Telstra "delivered 5X data growth at fixed cost by FY21." That required productivity improvement of 37%/year. Verizon estimates 40%/year. CEO Vestberg puts it another way: "Our cost per bit is 1/10th of what it was." Deutsche Telekom estimates 1/8th. None of these figures are exact, but the trend is obvious.

Wireless technology is improving at a ferocious rate. As we all know, demand for bits continually increases. The improvements in technology have generally matched the growth in traffic demand. Now that traffic growth is slowing, overcapacity is likely. 

The rough equivalence between capacity and demand is confirmed by the financial reports of Telstra, Verizon, and most other telcos. Capital spending has been flat while generally meeting demand. Speeds have gone up dramatically.

Supply and demand explain much of what's happening in telco networks. 

 A Chinese teardown of the Xiaomi Redmi K30 5G estimates the component costs at $250*, leaving almost nothing to cover assembling, distribution, support ... It will lose money on each one. Prices under $300/2000 yuan were expected by summer 2020. Xaiomi is six months ahead. It's a decent phone: 6.7", 120 Mhz screen refresh, 4 rear cameras including Sony's 64-megapixel IMX686, fast charging,sensor. It also supports 30W fast flash charging, and has a 4500 mAh battery.

Xiaomi founder, Le Jun, explains, " Today's China is an era of overcapacity." There are nine 5G phone makers in a market where it will be hard for even 4 or 5 to be profitable. Xiaomi has no choice but to find dramatic ways to break out of the pack.

The low price is probably a good idea. Since the days of the Hewlett-Packard calculators, electronics companies have often "forward-priced." Costs go down with scale and as the company advances "down the learning curve."The low price builds the volume to a point the company gets better parts prices. Low prices also build demand, for this and other Xiaomi models.

5G phone prices are down to $285!! 9 companies are selling 5G phones but the market will only allow 4 or 5 to be profitable. That's the China price, where 10M or more have already signed up. The 150 million subscribing in China next year are an enormous market. All the companies are doing what they believe they must to win market share. US & European prices are still $900 and up, as telcos go very slow on 5G.

The chart below has phone, china price, weight, number of cameras, and size for all phones shipping as of December 13. The updated master is here.

Over 30 networks are actively selling 5G to consumers. About as many more carriers have told the press they are active but are really still in trials. T-Mobile US has a low-band offering it considers 5G but is slower than most 4G. I think that's a scam and don't include it. 

The latest live list is here. Below, the list from Dec 26, 2019 

Errors and additions daveb@dslprime.com.  

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

Ten million Chinese "reserved" 5G phones in the first two weeks of October, a powerful signal of high demand. Huawei thought they could all get phones in October. But the official figures are less than 1M 5G phones in October and ~5M in November.

WTF? It could be an ordinary problem of ramping supply of a new product. It could be the official figures on phone sales are lagging reality by several weeks. 

It might also be that millions aren't following up on their reservations. In October, most 5G phones cost $700-1200. In November, prices fell to $453. Xiaomi just announced a decent 5G phone for $285 (1999 yuan,) starting to ship in January. The Chinese press actively reported the price drop, although the initial supply has been limited. Smart buyers may just be waiting.

But it's also possible the 10M figure was not right. Contrary to Western reports, the major Chinese companies do not routinely lie about things like this. 

A few years back, the Chinese figures for FTTH were hard to believe. But I checked with the chipmakers, who confirmed China was buying that many chips for FTTH.

There's enormous pressure on the telcos to "accelerate" 5G, which was supposed to stay in trials until summer, 2020. They haven't provided any details of the second half of October or of November. Maybe something is in fact wrong.

The ten million figure is prominent in the raised projections for 5G subscribers and I hope it is accurate.

Xiaomi's first 2020 phone is US$200 cheaper than anything else in the world, half the price of many, and less than a third of the prices in the West. Huawei and China Mobile expected the price to fall under $300 in the summer of 2020. Shipping in January, Xiaomi has moved 6 months before anyone anticipated.

Lu Weibing of Xiaomi is seizing "a historic opportunity" to win market share for the next decade. Huawei has jumped to over 40% market share in China. The low price is a weapon against the Huawei Honor brand, Lu is

"Very confident that K30 will completely crush the V30 of friends. This product must be the turning point between the two brands. We will form a crushing trend."

The Redmi K30 5G uses the new Qualcomm Snapdragon 765G,  priced lower than the 865G in all prior Qualcomm 5G phones. While chip prices are confidential, Qualcomm has reduced the price differential between the 765G and 4G chips. The 4G version of the K30 is $230, only $55 less than the 5G. 

It's a decent phone: 6.7" screen, 64-megapixel camera, 120Hz display, and a 4500 mAh battery. When I told Jennie the specs, she asked, "When will we be able to buy it in the US?"

?$150 by the end of 2020. 

Only wireless engineers will believe Neville Ray's sworn statement, "We have publicly announced that we will commence building the T-Mobile 5G network in 30 cities, including New York, Los Angeles, Dallas, and Las Vegas, during 2018. Because 5G-capable devices are not yet available, we do not anticipate offering 5G mobile services until sometime in the first half of 2019. This network build will include approximately xxx cell sites and will provide an average throughput of 25 Mbps."http://bit.ly/NevilleRay

AT&T's 4G network averaged 70 Mbps in May of 2019 and T-Mobile slightly over 50 Mbps. (PC Mag, picture below) It's usually higher now, especially where equipment was upgraded for 5G.) On 4G, PCMag actually tested live service in Manhattan at over 500 Mbps. (Using advanced LTE & LAA.)

25 Mbps average for 5G must be impossible, right. WTF?

What every wireless engineer knows is that low-band 5G is really 4G with some software, 5G NR. 5G NR does almost nothing for performance.

Samsung is now selling the 5G 980 chip to Vivo, the Chinese giant. This means Samsung is now challenging Qualcomm for 5G chip orders rather than only supplying their own phones. The competition will continue to drive 5G phone prices down. By summer, expect $300 phones. By the end of 2020, 5G phones may be as low as $200.

It will be used in the Vivo 5G X30 phone, shipping in December. The rumored price is US$455. It supports both SA and NSA 5G cores, a requirement in China starting in 2020. Vivo hopes to sell 100 million phones in 2020.

Separately, Mediatek is now sampling the Dimensity 1000 5G chip.