Verizon 5G Cells Before and after 2305G is not going to be an expensive network build, according to Verizon, NTT DOCOMO, France Telecom, and Qualcomm. The latest data come from Qualcomm, the only company able to demonstrate a mobile phone sized set of chips. Qualcomm simulations, based on data from several test trials, show existing towers can cover two-thirds of most cities.“Based on our extensive over-the-air testing and channel measurements, significant outdoor coverage  (> 65%) is possible utilizing actual existing LTE sites. The 65% coverage figure is outdoor only. mmWave is blocked by some wall/windows and passes through others. Verizon is using outdoor antennas but hopes to allow customer self-installs indoor. 

Upgrading existing cells first drastically brings down costs. Verizon and I believe AT&T are choosing to do most mmWave from existing cells. The illustration is from a Verizon presentation. It shows a dense area where fewer cells are needed in 5G. In areas like this, the greater capacity of the new tech allows shutting down cells. Verizon hasn't given us enough data to know what percent of the network can have fewer cells. They certainly will not be able to reduce the number in rural areas, where they are needed for coverage. 

Small cells will continue to be built where capacity is needed. They are a relatively cheap way to serve high demand areas. But Verizon will not need the hundreds of thousands of new cells I and many others once expected.  

By the second phase of the rollout, 2023 or 2024, CEO Hans Vestberg predicts equipment costs will be far less, as is typical for telecom equipment. He expects to cover "the entire country" by 2018. 

I'm 90% sure Verizon is on target on costs. They have data from thousands of cells active, far more than any other company. CEO Hans Vestberg of Verizon, CTO Seizo Onoe of NTT DOCOMO  both have said 5G will not raise carrier investment significantly, at least in the next few years, The politicians and salesmen who say otherwise are almost certainly wrong, including FCC Chair Ajit Pai, BNetzA chair Jochen Homann, or OFCOM's Sharon White. Carriers and their lobbyists are making ridiculous claims. For example, Deutsche Telecom estimates its costs to be a multiple of what Verizon is spending - for a better network. 

Indoor performance varies widely depending on the type of walls and windows. Verizon initially will install outdoor antennas. Going forward, Verizon many customers will be able to . CEO Lowell McAdam early this year promised a gigabit for all. In September, the official announcement instead offers “300 megabits to a gigabit.”

It could probably fall back to the better indoor performance of 4G in many locations. The U.S. carriers are deploying “Gig LTE” across the country. That merges three to five spectrum bands using carrier aggregation, 4x4 MIMO antennas, and 256 QAM improved coding. “Gig LTE” has peak speeds up to 1.5 gigabits and realistically delivers 100-500 megabits.

Most 5G is mid-band: 4G hardware with NR software, only a modest improvement. (Speeds often 100-400 megabits.) Verizon is the only large carrier promising gigabit mmWave.  

 

dave ask

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CFO John Stephens says AT&T is going to cut capex soon.

Bharti in India has lost 45M customers who did not want to pay the minimum US#2/month. It's shutting down 3G to free some spectrum for 4G. It is cutting capex, dangerous when the 12 gigabytes/month of use continues to rise.

Huawei in 6 days sold 300,000 5G Mate 20s. Delivery begins on 8/16. 

China has over 50,000 upgraded base stations and may have more than 200,000 by yearend 2019. The growth is astonishing and about to accelerate. China will have more 5G than North America and Europe combined for several years.

5G phone prices are down to $580 in China from Oppo. Headed under $300 in 2020 and driving demand.

No one believed me when I wrote in May, 90% of Huawei U.S. purchases can be rapidly replaced and that Huawei would survive and thrive. Financial results are in, with 23% growth and increased phone sales. It is spending $17B on research in 2019, up > 10%. 

5G phones spotted from Sharp and Sony

NTT DOCOMO will begin "pre-commercial service Sept 20 with over 100 live bases. Officially, the commercial start is 2020.

 More newsfeed

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Welcome  1,800,000 Koreans bought 5G in the first four months. The demand is there, and most of the technology works. Meanwhile, the hype is unreal. Time for reporting closer to the truth.

The estimates you hear about 5G costs are wildly exaggerated. Verizon is building the most advanced wireless network while reducing capex. Deutsche Telekom and Orange/France Telecom also confirm they won't raise capex.

Massive MIMO in either 4G or "5G" can increase capacity 3X to 7X, including putting 2.3 GHz to 4.2 GHz to use. Carrier Aggregation, 256 QAM, and other tools double and triple that. Verizon sees cost/bit dropping 40% per year.

Cisco & others see traffic growth slowing to 30%/year or less.  I infer overcapacity almost everywhere.  

Believe it or not, 80+% of 5G (mid-band) for several years will be slower than good 4G, which is more developed.