Now that nearly everyone in the developed world has smartphones, data growth is falling dramatically. The trend has been down for several years. Cisco sees growth in Asia-Pacific falling to 37% and Latin America to 34% by 2022. Folks who make business decisions on the assumption of high growth will be disappointed.

Since the technology is improving at something like 40% per year, that means either excess capacity or capex cuts. Verizon is building the most advanced wireless network in the world and cut capital spending in 2018. Deutsche Telekom, NTT DOCOMO, and Orange/FT have all told investors that capex will be flat to down as they build 5G networks.

The developing world continues remarkable growth, especially in India. Cisco's estimate for Middle East and Africa is 48% for 2022. As smartphones approach saturation, growth will slow. 

The only thing visible that could bring traffic growth back up is fixed wireless like Verizon. That would bring with it additional revenues that would more than cover the cost of any needed network upgrades. AR/VR/SR could take off, but I expect it will ramp at a reasonable rate.

Mobile growth percentage peaked first as people bought smartphones. There was a lesser peak as Netflix became more popular and speeds went up for video. 

Nokia's North American CTO Mike Murphy sees growth going up to 50% and remaining at that level. That disagrees with Cisco, CTIA, & AT&T. His article Tick-Tock, or Why 5G Must Happen Soon in the US, assumes 50% growth. He also implies that AT&T and Verizon lied when they told Wall Street 50% of their spectrum was unused in 2017.

More surprising, Mike asserts that SON and other techniques to minimize interference between cells doesn't work very well or at all. "Densification unfortunately can result in unwanted interference if applied more so than has already been done in the same frequencies, and so we expect its use to be limited."

Nokia salesman are telling customers their system does a good job of mitigating interference. Those customers are planning tens of thousands of small cells, Telus CTO Ibrahim Gedeon tells me most of the small cell problems had been solved and he was building them aggressively.  I believe Huawei is supplying Telus but I doubt Nokia is so far behind. Nokia Shanghai Bell is supplying hundreds of thousands of radios to Chinese carriers, where the population and network density is much higher.

Perhaps a marketing person who didn't know the above wrote the Light Reading article that went out over Mike's name and no network person checked it. 

(I sent the key points above to Nokia to fact check and haven't received any data to the contrary.)

 

dave ask

@davescomm

Details on all 5G phones, as prices drop to $285 ** All actual 5G networks worldwide ** Facebook ordered to repost Italian fascist page. ** Apple China sales down 35%** Qorvo sees 300M 5G 2020 & 750M 2023 mmWave <10%

** Bharti demands India Gov more than double prices and enforce cartel. Sunil Mittal "Situation is dire. It is a matter of survival for everyone." ** Wi-Fi 6 meets ITU 5G criteria @stephenjcrowley ** Samsung $8B for Chinese memory plants ** Morgan paying billions for Altice fiber

Dec 10 Sprint bringing $300-500 5G phones to US 2020. Nokia, Lenovo, HMD ** H., Apple, and AMD doing 5 nm test runs on TSMC's 5 nm. Early results are 15-30% better than 7 nm ** AT&T low-band 5G built to >65% US. Speeds slower than 4G at launch. ** 

Verizon CEO Ronan Dunne: >1/2 VZ 5G "will approximate to a good 4G service" Midband in "low hundreds" Mbps ** CFO John Stephens says AT&T is going to cut capex soon. ** Huawei in 16 days sold 1,000,000 5G Mate 20s.  

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Welcome  Asia is installing hundreds of thousands of 5G radios and adding 5G subs by the tens of millions. The west is far behind. 200,000,000 in 2020

The demand is there, and most of the technology works. Meanwhile, the hype is unreal. Time for reporting closer to the truth.

I'm Dave Burstein, Editor. I've been reporting telecom since 1999. I love to hear from readers, especially when you find an error. daveb@dslprime.com

Also see

analysisbranch.com,

fastnet.news

huaweireport.com