T Mobile Every InchCraig Moffett recently wrote, "The probability of regulatory approval at 50%, the odds of deal consummation are therefore something like 40%." At Bernstein, Moffett was perennially rated the #1 analyst on Wall Street when at Bernstein. He's remarkably creative. He's particularly well informed about D.C. Since at least 2009, he's made a point of actively building D.C. contacts at the highest level. FCC Commissioners care about Wall Street opinion and have often looked to Craig.

Jonathan Atkin of RBC agrees. "We continue to believe the likelihood of a Sprint/T-Mobile deal approval is less than 50%." Walter Piecyk believes, "There is less than 40% chance the Sprint/T-Mobile deal is approved by regulators."

My take: If D.C. gets the facts, the chance is less than 10%. If government people drink the Kool-Aid, it might just go through. 

dave askAugust 2018 Verizon's $20B 5G build is starting to add customers in 2018. Gigabit LTE & Massive MIMO became real in 2017 and enow expanding worldwide. Almost all the other "5G" is mid-band, 70%-90% slower + hype. Europe is mostly pr. The term 5G has been bastardized, unfortunately.

Being a reporter is a great job for a geek. I'm not an engineer but I've learned from some of the best, including the primary inventors of DSL, cable modems, MIMO, Massive MIMO, and now 5G mmWave. Since 1999, I've done my best to get closer to the truth about broadband.

Send questions and news to Dave Burstein, Editor. I always want to hear from you, especially if you catch a mistake.

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 5G Why Verizon thinks differently and what to do about it is a new report I wrote for STL Partners and their clients.

STL Partners, a British consulting outfit I respect, commissioned me to ask why. That report is now out. If you're a client, download it here. If not, and corporate priced research is interesting to you, ask me to introduce you to one of the principals.

It was fascinating work because the answers aren't obvious. Lowell McAdam's company is spending $20B to cover 30M+ homes in the first stage. The progress in low & mid-band, both "4G" and "5G," has been remarkable. In most territories, millimeter wave will not be necessary to meet expected demand.

McAdam sees a little further. mmWave has 3-4X the capacity of low and mid-band. He sees an enormous marketing advantage: unlimited services, even less congestion, reputation as the best network. Verizon testing found mmWave rate/reach was twice what had been estimated. All prior cost estimates need revision.

My take: even if mmWave doesn't fit in your current budget, telcos should expand trials and training to be ready as things change. The new cost estimates may be low enough to change your mind.