Moghul.1590 23026M added on the most efficient network in the world. Open Signal testers were able to access an LTE signal 96.4% of the time. That's more than comparable testing on any of the U.S. carriers. Jio pledges to reach 99% of the 1.3B Indians by the end of 2018.

The secret sauce is a state of the art all-IP 4G network that delivers data for ~$0.05 per marginal gigabit. The network cost > $20B to build, but once in place has very low marginal costs. The 150,000 base stations are two or three times as many as Verizon or AT&T, many with Massive MIMO.

They control 300,000 kilometers of domestic fiber and a share of 25,000 kilometers of undersea international.

They haven't released many details on NFV & SDN, but they are using the latest. There are no legacy 2G & 3G networks to support. All calls are VoLTE. They are soon to close on the $4B purchase of 43,000 towers, 178,000 more kilometers of fiber and spectrum.

They have a $B music service, aggressive video plans possibly including Netflix, and a complete line of consumer products on the way. They'll need - and expect - much of the long run profit to come from more than data.

The claimed $140M operating profit may be a stretch because of an unusual depreciation method, but the financial results are remarkable. Jio is conclusive proof that a high volume/low price strategy can work.

In 2014, I asked Carlos Slim whether a similar low cost/high volume model could work in Latin America. Xavier Niel proved it out in France, becoming a multi-billionaire. Indonesia & Thailand, as well as India, are headed in the same direction.

Data isn't free, but it's so cheap everyone can have plenty.

  

 Q1 From Jio

POSITIVE NET INCOME IN THE FIRST YEAR OF COMMERCIAL OPERATIONS; NET PROFIT FOR THE YEAR AT ` 723 CRORE

ROBUST FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE IN A COMPETITIVE MARKET ENVIRONMENT

SUSTAINED GROWTH IN SUBSCRIBER BASE TO 186.6 MILLION

STRONG CUSTOMER TRACTION ON DIGITAL OFFERINGS

DATA CONSUMPTION AT RECORD 506 CRORE GB IN THE QUARTER; 17.4% Q-O-Q GROWTH IN DATA CONSUMPTION

WORLD’S FASTEST GROWING & MOST EFFICIENT DIGITAL SERVICES PLATFORM HIGHLIGHTS OF QUARTER’S (Q4 – FY 2017-18) PERFORMANCE

  • Jio has continued its strong subscriber growth trend with net addition during the quarter of 26.5 million (as against 21.5 million in the previous quarter)

  •   Gross adds at 27.9 million and churn of only 1.4 million implying the lowest industry churn rate at 0.25% per month

  •   Jio subscribers continue to demonstrate high activity level with average data consumption per user per month of 9.7 GB and average voice consumption of 716 minutes per user per month

  •   Continued expansion of 4G network coverage and further deepening in existing areas to achieve 99% population coverage during 2018

  • World’s largest mobile data consumption network 

  • Ranked fastest network over last 15 months by TRAI’s MySpeed Analytics app (average download speed of 17.9 Mbps during March 2018, as per TRAI)

 

Standalone Financials (` crores)

4Q’ 17-18

3Q’ 17-18

QoQ Growth

Value of Services
 

8,404
 

8,114
 

3.6%

Operating revenue
 

7,128
 

6,879
 

3.6%

EBITDA

2,694
 

2,628

2.5%

EBITDA margin
 

37.8%
 

38.2%
 

-1.1%

EBIT

1,495
 

1,436

4.1%

Net Profit
 

510

 
 

504

 
 

1.2%

􏰀 Standalone revenue from operations of ` 7,128 crore (3.6% QoQ growth)
􏰀 StandaloneEBITDAof`2,694crore(2.5%QoQgrowth)andEBITDAmarginof37.8% 􏰀 Standalone Net Profit of ` 510 crore
􏰀 Subscriber base as on 31st Mar-18 of 186.6 million
􏰀 Lowest churn in the industry at 0.25% per month
􏰀 ARPU during the quarter of ` 137.1/ subscriber per month
􏰀 Total wireless data traffic during the quarter of 506 crore GB
􏰀 Total voice traffic during the quarter of 37,218 crore minutes

dave ask

Newsfeed

CFO John Stephens says AT&T is going to cut capex soon.

Bharti in India has lost 45M customers who did not want to pay the minimum US#2/month. It's shutting down 3G to free some spectrum for 4G. It is cutting capex, dangerous when the 12 gigabytes/month of use continues to rise.

Huawei in 6 days sold 300,000 5G Mate 20s. Delivery begins on 8/16. 

China has over 50,000 upgraded base stations and may have more than 200,000 by yearend 2019. The growth is astonishing and about to accelerate. China will have more 5G than North America and Europe combined for several years.

5G phone prices are down to $580 in China from Oppo. Headed under $300 in 2020 and driving demand.

No one believed me when I wrote in May, 90% of Huawei U.S. purchases can be rapidly replaced and that Huawei would survive and thrive. Financial results are in, with 23% growth and increased phone sales. It is spending $17B on research in 2019, up > 10%. 

5G phones spotted from Sharp and Sony

NTT DOCOMO will begin "pre-commercial service Sept 20 with over 100 live bases. Officially, the commercial start is 2020.

 More newsfeed

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Welcome  1,800,000 Koreans bought 5G in the first four months. The demand is there, and most of the technology works. Meanwhile, the hype is unreal. Time for reporting closer to the truth.

The estimates you hear about 5G costs are wildly exaggerated. Verizon is building the most advanced wireless network while reducing capex. Deutsche Telekom and Orange/France Telecom also confirm they won't raise capex.

Massive MIMO in either 4G or "5G" can increase capacity 3X to 7X, including putting 2.3 GHz to 4.2 GHz to use. Carrier Aggregation, 256 QAM, and other tools double and triple that. Verizon sees cost/bit dropping 40% per year.

Cisco & others see traffic growth slowing to 30%/year or less.  I infer overcapacity almost everywhere.  

Believe it or not, 80+% of 5G (mid-band) for several years will be slower than good 4G, which is more developed.