henningFCC Chief Technologist Henning Schulzrine startled the engineers at a high level 5G wireless event by predicting a complete turnaround in spectrum policy and licensing.

Instead of "licensing" monopoly use of spectrum, "All new spectrum would be shared." That corresponds to the opinions of nearly all impartial top engineers, but of course is heresy to lobbyists in the EU and U.S.

Shared spectrum is better, but I fear Henning is being optimistic about what the politicians will do.

In the EU, Ottinger is talking instead about lengthening the monopoly terms. Across the globe, regulators are designating 3.5 GHz mostly for monopoly use. In the U.S., the FCC is planning more auctions and possibly rolling back the rules for sharing.

"Share everything" (Henning)

Henning asked me to clarify an earlier version of this article. Sharing does not necessarily mean completely unlicensed, like Wi-Fi. The 3.5 GHz band combines a variety of models. If I have this right, the 3.5 GHz band is divided between "unlicensed," "lightly licensed,' and a limited number of more restrictive licenses. (As well as certain locations and bands that continued to be reserved for the military.) Wi-Fi is good evidence sharing can work, given enough spectrum, but not the only way to share. His comment shouldn't be interpreted to mean it is all going to be like 2.4/5.8 GHz.

No one disputes that some spectrum should be reserved for monopoly use, at least on a regional level. That's important for public safety and (at least for many years) control channels. No one has studied this in depth; my guess is that completely reserved spectrum could be reduced to 20-50 MHz/company, half what most major telcos have today. Beyond that, the carriers can explore for unused spectrum and in almost all likely cases find plenty.

At least 50% of the usable spectrum is fallow today, even in congested cities. See Dennis Roberson's work. This isn't news; I remember Dave Farber holding up an amazing chart more than a decade ago. 

That's exactly what AT&T intends to do with LAA later this year in the Wi-Fi band. Their radios would "listen" to make sure a band is empty, "before talking" on that band.Verizon and Qualcomm testing convinced every engineer I've discussed this with that will work. The current 3GPP rules have problems, including an inappropriate noise floor. That needs to be solved. 

This very open and free sharing is just starting to deploy. It would take 10-15 years to upgrade the networks fully. It would also require some modest "rules of the road." In particular, neither Wi-Fi nor anything else should commonly use 80 MHz or 160 MHz, unless it's clearly free. Stanford Professors Cioffi & Goldsmith in 2014 pointed out the greed in 802.11 ac. LTE-U can have the same problem.

Efficient sharing normally at least doubles wireless capacity and often increases capacity 500% or more.  

dave ask

@davescomm

Rethinking Jan 27: Coronavirus could invalidate all projections. I reported on AIDS for 2 years. This could be worse because it spreads in air. Let us hope and pray.

Details on all 5G phones, as prices drop to $285 ** All actual 5G networks worldwide ** Facebook ordered to repost Italian fascist page. ** Apple China sales down 35%** Qorvo sees 300M 5G 2020 & 750M 2023 mmWave <10%

** Bharti demands India Gov more than double prices and enforce cartel. Sunil Mittal "Situation is dire. It is a matter of survival for everyone." ** Wi-Fi 6 meets ITU 5G criteria @stephenjcrowley ** Samsung $8B for Chinese memory plants ** Morgan paying billions for Altice fiber

Dec 10 Sprint bringing $300-500 5G phones to US 2020. Nokia, Lenovo, HMD ** H., Apple, and AMD doing 5 nm test runs on TSMC's 5 nm. Early results are 15-30% better than 7 nm ** AT&T low-band 5G built to >65% US. Speeds slower than 4G at launch. ** 

Verizon CEO Ronan Dunne: >1/2 VZ 5G "will approximate to a good 4G service" Midband in "low hundreds" Mbps ** CFO John Stephens says AT&T is going to cut capex soon. ** Huawei in 16 days sold 1,000,000 5G Mate 20s.  

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Welcome  Asia is installing hundreds of thousands of 5G radios and adding 5G subs by the tens of millions. The west is far behind. 200,000,000 in 2020

The demand is there, and most of the technology works. Meanwhile, the hype is unreal. Time for reporting closer to the truth.

I'm Dave Burstein, Editor. I've been reporting telecom since 1999. I love to hear from readers and say thank you when you find an error. daveb@dslprime.com

Also see

analysisbranch.com,

fastnet.news

huaweireport.com