White space 16 megabits 200These may be the first customers getting more than 10 megabits reported anywhere. Michael Davies and Richard Yu of 6Harmonics in Ottawa have sent me test data showing customers with a connection phy rate of 16-18 megabits, as well as convincing details from other deployments doing better than that. I thank Boston Consulting Group for pushing me to go beyond published reports and get these new results. The fuzzy photo below shows eight users connected to a base station using a single 6 MHz channel. They have deployments in California and North Carolina using two channels for nearly double the speed. High speed uplink is included.

They are ready with a three channel unit for even higher speeds. Yu has been working on multiple antenna systems (MIMO) for almost 20 years. I'm sure he can achieve even better throughput using more antennas. They seem to be so busy actually building the equipment they haven't had time to get the latest results up on their web site. CEO Yu, off the record, shared remarkable predictions for what they will offer within a year. 

 

Professors Roy and Anant had sent me theoretical reasons why it would be hard to go beyond 10 megabits. I researched the publicly discussed deployments and couldn't find any going faster than 10. I used that figure in my early writeup of Microsoft's White Space proposals, which I called too slow. I was lucky I found this before I published. The 6Harmonic deployments are doing better than 10 megabits.

An engineer tells me he expects multiple antenna (MIMO) White Space gear within the year. MIMO with 4-8 antennas requires mixed terrain that allow the signals to reflect. It works poorly in the Australian Outback, which is most flat. It works well in most cities but not to all neighborhoods. Paulraj tells me Massive MIMO will work in flat topographies as well; the many antennas allow focusing the beams. Massive is now deploying at four carriers, with several more announcing they will soon deploy.  

Berkeley's Anant Sahai, author with Kate Harrison of How much white-space capacity is there?,  wrote me

"Suppose we assume that we can have 4 spatially multiplexed streams each with a spectral efficiency of 2 bits/sec/Hz = 4 * 2 * 6 = 48 Mbits/sec. This comports with your "about 50" number that is of course shared among all the users of the base-station. From my perspective, this is a relatively optimistic number since it does not take into account any interference. While that might be reasonable either during early deployments or as an assumption for an isolated group of homes in the middle of nowhere (either way, there isn't really another system operating nearby), it would be more reasonable to assume 1 bit/sec/Hz per spatial stream as the best case in generic situations that do have interference among sites that take care to mitigate the interference. That would be closer to 24 Mbit/sec. 
Getting the full spatial multiplexing gain with multiple antennas is dubious in rural type scenarios where there aren't many rich scatterers in the environment. So a more conservative best-case estimate would be closer to 10Mbit/sec per 6MHz channel assuming a multi-antenna deployment using 4 antennas at the customer site."
Sumit Roy of the University of Washington added, 

"Not that straightforward, in terms of direct extrapolation (based on what I *think* you are doing). As you will have seen from the Shannon capacity computations in our work: the link SNR is very spatially varying, depending on the co & adjacent channel interference from nearby TV towers. So this variation in channel quality must be accounted for in any reasonable estimate (so it's not just about channel BW)." 

White space 16 megabits 650

 

dave ask

Newsfeed

Lei Jun Xiaomi "5G to have explosive growth starting from Q2 2020"5G to have explosive growth starting from Q2 2020" I say sooner

Verizon CEO Ronan Dunne: >1/2 VZ 5G "will approximate to a good 4G service" Midband in "low hundreds" Mbps

CFO John Stephens says AT&T is going to cut capex soon.

Bharti in India has lost 45M customers who did not want to pay the minimum USS2/month. It's shutting down 3G to free some spectrum for 4G. It is cutting capex, dangerous when the 12 gigabytes/month of use continues to rise.

Huawei in 16 days sold 1,000,000 5G Mate 20s.  

China has over 50,000 upgraded base stations and may have more than 200,000 by yearend 2019. The growth is astonishing and about to accelerate. China will have more 5G than North America and Europe combined for several years.

5G phone prices are down to $580 in China from Oppo. Headed under $300 in 2020 and driving demand.

No one believed me when I wrote in May, 90% of Huawei U.S. purchases can be rapidly replaced and that Huawei would survive and thrive. Financial results are in, with 23% growth and increased phone sales. It is spending $17B on research in 2019, up > 10%. 

5G phones spotted from Sharp and Sony

NTT DOCOMO will begin "pre-commercial service Sept 20 with over 100 live bases. Officially, the commercial start is 2020.

 More newsfeed

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Welcome  1,800,000 Koreans bought 5G in the first four months. The demand is there, and most of the technology works. Meanwhile, the hype is unreal. Time for reporting closer to the truth.

The estimates you hear about 5G costs are wildly exaggerated. Verizon is building the most advanced wireless network while reducing capex. Deutsche Telekom and Orange/France Telecom also confirm they won't raise capex.

Massive MIMO in either 4G or "5G" can increase capacity 3X to 7X, including putting 2.3 GHz to 4.2 GHz to use. Carrier Aggregation, 256 QAM, and other tools double and triple that. Verizon sees cost/bit dropping 40% per year.

Cisco & others see traffic growth slowing to 30%/year or less.  I infer overcapacity almost everywhere.  

Believe it or not, 80+% of 5G (mid-band) for several years will be slower than good 4G, which is more developed.