Gavin Patterson 230At Huawei's London MBBF, BT CEO Gavin Patterson went first, saying, "The business case isn't there." DT CTO Bruno Jacobfeuerborn, adding "For 5G, Deutsche Telekom still has no business models."  FT/Orange SVP Arnaud Vamparys followed with a second agreement.

3,000 miles away, Verizon was finalizing the announcement that they would rush to deploy ~30M homes of 5G mmWave. At NGMN and elsewhere, the top tech people share freely what they know. All are working with essentially the same understanding. How can we explain the different choices?

Verizon landlines cover only about 1/4th of the U.S. They need an offering to compete with cable and DSL.

They believe the new one gig wireless service will win 20-40% of the landline customers. AT&T is thinking the same way and will probably invest to keep up with Verizon.  

The Europeans have a landline offering throughout their territory. Almost all have more customers than the cablecos, which rarely cover the entire country. Verizon expects new revenue from fixed wireless to cover much of the deployment costs. The Europeans will have to pay for the mmWave network with just the mobile revenues.

BT, DT & FT are not alone in their hesitancy. Telefonica’s CTO, Enrico Blanco, didn’t address the subject directly but previously pointed out his “4G” network would do just fine for the expected “5G” applications. The Chinese press is reporting that China Telecom has made the same decision, although China Mobile is moving ahead with 10,000 cells by 2020.

All of these companies will begin deploying in 2019 & 2020 because it's a political necessity. Expect plenty of hype and pr. They also need to train their people and develop systems for when they do build. 

But the current plans of these companies is to go slow until 2022-2024,

 

dave askDec 2017 Verizon just confirmed the $20B 5G build is on, as I reported in May. Gigabit LTE is real in 2017. So is 5G Massive MIMO. 5G mmWave to fixed antennas is likely 2018, with mobile to follow. China, Japan, Korea, and Verizon U.S. are firm, with heavy investment expected 2019-2021. 

Being a reporter is a great job for a geek. I'm not an engineer but I've learned from some of the best, including the primary inventors of DSL, cable modems, MIMO, Massive MIMO, and now 5G mmWave. Since 1999, I've done my best to get closer to the truth about broadband.

Wireless One - W1 replaces 5gwnews.com in July 2017. Send questions and news to Dave Burstein, Editor.