Gavin Patterson 230At Huawei's London MBBF, BT CEO Gavin Patterson went first, saying, "The business case isn't there." DT CTO Bruno Jacobfeuerborn, adding "For 5G, Deutsche Telekom still has no business models."  FT/Orange SVP Arnaud Vamparys followed with a second agreement.

3,000 miles away, Verizon was finalizing the announcement that they would rush to deploy ~30M homes of 5G mmWave. At NGMN and elsewhere, the top tech people share freely what they know. All are working with essentially the same understanding. How can we explain the different choices?

Verizon landlines cover only about 1/4th of the U.S. They need an offering to compete with cable and DSL.

They believe the new one gig wireless service will win 20-40% of the landline customers. AT&T is thinking the same way and will probably invest to keep up with Verizon.  

The Europeans have a landline offering throughout their territory. Almost all have more customers than the cablecos, which rarely cover the entire country. Verizon expects new revenue from fixed wireless to cover much of the deployment costs. The Europeans will have to pay for the mmWave network with just the mobile revenues.

BT, DT & FT are not alone in their hesitancy. Telefonica’s CTO, Enrico Blanco, didn’t address the subject directly but previously pointed out his “4G” network would do just fine for the expected “5G” applications. The Chinese press is reporting that China Telecom has made the same decision, although China Mobile is moving ahead with 10,000 cells by 2020.

All of these companies will begin deploying in 2019 & 2020 because it's a political necessity. Expect plenty of hype and pr. They also need to train their people and develop systems for when they do build. 

But the current plans of these companies is to go slow until 2022-2024,

 

dave ask

Newsfeed

The 3.3-4.2 spectrum should be shared, not exclusively used by one company, concludes an important U.S. Defense Innovation Board report. If more wireless broadband is important, sharing is of course right because shared networks can yield far more

It does work! Verizon's mmWave tests over a gigabit in the real world. 
The $669 OnePlus 7 Pro outclasses the best Apples and probably the new Galaxy 10 or Huawei P30 Pro. Optical zoom, three cameras, liquid cooling, Qualcomm 855 and more.
Korea at 400,000 5G May 15. Chinese "pre-commercial" signing customers, 60,000-120,000 base stations in 2019, million+ remarkable soon. 
5G phones Huawei Mate 20, Samsung Galaxy 10, ZTE Nubia, LG V50, and OPPO are all on sale at China Unicom. All cost US$1,000 to 1,500 before subsidy. Xiaomi promises US$600.
Natural monopoly? Vodafone & Telecom Italia to share 5G, invite all other companies to join.
Huawei predicts 5G phones for US$200 in 2021, $300 even earlier
NY Times says "5G is dangerous" is a Russian plot. Really.
Althiostar raised US$114 million for a virtual RAN system in the cloud. Rakuten, Japan's new #4, is using it and invested.
Ireland is proposing a US$3 billion subsidy for rural fibre that will be much too expensive. Politics.
Telefonica Brazil has 9M FTTH homes passed and will add 6M more within two years. Adjusted for population, that's more than the U.S. The CEO publicly urged other carriers to raise prices together.
CableLabs and Cisco have developed Low Latency XHaul (LLX) with 5-15 ms latency for 5G backhaul,  U.S. cable is soon to come in very strong in wireless. Details 
Korea Telecom won 100,000 5G customers in the first month. SK & LG added 150,000 more. KT has 37,500 cells. planning 90% of the country by yearend. 
The Chinese giants expect 60,000 to 90,000 5G cells by the end of 2019.
China Telecom's Yang Xin warns, "Real large-scale deployment of operators' edge computing may be after 2021." Customers are hard to find.
Reliance Jio registered 97.5% 4G availability across India in Open Signal testing. Best in world.

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Welcome On Oct 1, 2019 Verizon turned on the first $20B 5G mmWave network with extraordinary hopes. The actual early results have been dismal. Good engineers tell me that will change. Meanwhile, the hype is unreal. Time for reporting closer to the truth.

The estimates you hear about 5G costs are wildly exaggerated. Verizon is building the most advanced wireless network while reducing capex. Deutsche Telekom and Orange/France Telecom also confirm they won't raise capex.

Massive MIMO in either 4G or "5G" can increase capacity 3X to 7X, including putting 2.3 GHz to 4.2 GHz to use. Carrier Aggregation, 256 QAM, and other tools double and triple that. Verizon sees cost/bit dropping 40% per year.

Cisco & others see traffic growth slowing to 30%/year or less.  I infer overcapacity almost everywhere.  

Believe it or not, 80% of 5G (mid-band) for several years will be slower than good 4G, which is more developed.