VZ 5G Existing vs new cells 230A gigabit median at 600 meters. A year ago, most experts expected mmWave to be limited to 150-250 meters. Earlier this year, Verizon mentioned good results at 400 meters. Now, Verizon is often seeing excellent results to 600 meters and further. A gigabit is common. 

The result is that far fewer new cells are required. The green dots are where Verizon already has cells. As you can see, there are few red dots for new cells. The cost is coming in so low Verizon does not expect to raise their capital spending. "Management stated that overall capital expenditures would not change substantially during the 5G rollout as internal resources are shifted from the 4G to the 5G platform."

It will be fixed only in 2018, with Verizon promising to support mobile as soon as the technology is available. Intel and Qualcomm expect 5G phones in production in 2019.

Ted Rappaport of NYU has long had an alternate "channel model" that predicted higher speeds, now confirmed. 

Ted in 2013 startled the industry with his article, Millimeter wave mobile communications for 5G cellular: It will work!” Now that Verizon is proving it does work, Ted has earned his Marconi Prize. In the chart, the NYU model is in blue and the traditional model in red.

Verizon will do five cities late in 2018, starting with Sacramento, an AT&T town. They look to sell triple play (including video and voice) or quadruple play (adding mobile.) They promise competitive prices, which will be required to reach their goal of 30% market share.

NYU model 230Both Verizon and AT&T expect whoever covers a city first will win 20% to 40% away from cable or DSL. It's a land grab situation, which I expect will inspire AT&T to move fast as well. 

Verizon will probably choose two vendors among Ericsson, Nokia, and Samsung. Samsung had few 4G builds outside of Asia, but has been investing heavily for half a decade. Samsung researchers, led by Wonil Roh, are leaders in the field. Ericsson & Nokia are hoping Verizon is just using Samsung as a stalking horse and will ultimately split the contract between the two of them. I'm sure intense negotiations are underway to complement the extensive testing.

I was surprised Calix and Adtran didn't rise on the news. They are supplying Verizon with NG-PON2, Verizon's 40 gigabit choice for backhaul. NG-PON2 is the choice of advanced telcos in the west. In China, it will be 25 & 50G Ethernet instead.

Here's the pr.

Verizon to launch 5G residential broadband services in up to 5 markets in 2018

 

NEWS PROVIDED BY

Verizon 

Nov 29, 2017, 16:09 ET


  • NEW YORK, Nov. 29, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- Leading the industry with the first commercial application of next-generation broadband services, Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE, Nasdaq: VZ) today announced it will launch wireless residential broadband services in three to five U.S. markets in 2018.

     

    As a first application of fifth-generation – or 5G -- wireless, these services will use radio signals, rather than copper or fiber cables, to provide customers with unprecedented wireless speeds for Internet access. As 5G continues to evolve, customers will benefit from a wide array of services – including broadband, mobile and IoT (Internet of things) -- and the necessary bandwidth and low latency for 3D and virtual reality applications.

    Verizon's first commercial launch is planned to be in Sacramento, Calif., in the second half of 2018. Details of that launch, and the announcement of additional markets, will be provided at a later date.

    Verizon has successfully trialed 5G residential applications in 11 markets in 2017. The commercial launch is based on customer experience and on Verizon's confidence in new technology powered by millimeter-wave spectrum.

    Verizon estimates the market opportunity for initial 5G residential broadband services to be approximately 30 million households nationwide.

    The 5G commercial launch will not have a material impact on Verizon's consolidated capital expenditures in 2018. The company expects its full-year 2018 capital spending program to be consistent with the past several years.

    "This is a landmark announcement for customers and investors who have been waiting for the 5G future to become a reality," said Hans Vestberg, Verizon president of Global Networks and Chief Technology Officer. "We appreciate our strong ecosystem partners for their passion and technological support in helping us drive forward with 5G industry standards, for both fixed and mobile applications. The targeted initial launches we are announcing today will provide a strong framework for accelerating 5G's future deployment on the global standards."

     

     

    dave ask

    Newsfeed

    The 3.3-4.2 spectrum should be shared, not exclusively used by one company, concludes an important U.S. Defense Innovation Board report. If more wireless broadband is important, sharing is of course right because shared networks can yield far more

    It does work! Verizon's mmWave tests over a gigabit in the real world. 
    The $669 OnePlus 7 Pro outclasses the best Apples and probably the new Galaxy 10 or Huawei P30 Pro. Optical zoom, three cameras, liquid cooling, Qualcomm 855 and more.
    Korea at 400,000 5G May 15. Chinese "pre-commercial" signing customers, 60,000-120,000 base stations in 2019, million+ remarkable soon. 
    5G phones Huawei Mate 20, Samsung Galaxy 10, ZTE Nubia, LG V50, and OPPO are all on sale at China Unicom. All cost US$1,000 to 1,500 before subsidy. Xiaomi promises US$600.
    Natural monopoly? Vodafone & Telecom Italia to share 5G, invite all other companies to join.
    Huawei predicts 5G phones for US$200 in 2021, $300 even earlier
    NY Times says "5G is dangerous" is a Russian plot. Really.
    Althiostar raised US$114 million for a virtual RAN system in the cloud. Rakuten, Japan's new #4, is using it and invested.
    Ireland is proposing a US$3 billion subsidy for rural fibre that will be much too expensive. Politics.
    Telefonica Brazil has 9M FTTH homes passed and will add 6M more within two years. Adjusted for population, that's more than the U.S. The CEO publicly urged other carriers to raise prices together.
    CableLabs and Cisco have developed Low Latency XHaul (LLX) with 5-15 ms latency for 5G backhaul,  U.S. cable is soon to come in very strong in wireless. Details 
    Korea Telecom won 100,000 5G customers in the first month. SK & LG added 150,000 more. KT has 37,500 cells. planning 90% of the country by yearend. 
    The Chinese giants expect 60,000 to 90,000 5G cells by the end of 2019.
    China Telecom's Yang Xin warns, "Real large-scale deployment of operators' edge computing may be after 2021." Customers are hard to find.
    Reliance Jio registered 97.5% 4G availability across India in Open Signal testing. Best in world.

    More newsfeed

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    Welcome On Oct 1, 2019 Verizon turned on the first $20B 5G mmWave network with extraordinary hopes. The actual early results have been dismal. Good engineers tell me that will change. Meanwhile, the hype is unreal. Time for reporting closer to the truth.

    The estimates you hear about 5G costs are wildly exaggerated. Verizon is building the most advanced wireless network while reducing capex. Deutsche Telekom and Orange/France Telecom also confirm they won't raise capex.

    Massive MIMO in either 4G or "5G" can increase capacity 3X to 7X, including putting 2.3 GHz to 4.2 GHz to use. Carrier Aggregation, 256 QAM, and other tools double and triple that. Verizon sees cost/bit dropping 40% per year.

    Cisco & others see traffic growth slowing to 30%/year or less.  I infer overcapacity almost everywhere.  

    Believe it or not, 80% of 5G (mid-band) for several years will be slower than good 4G, which is more developed.