400 meters mmWave without line of sight. Most projections of mmWave costs imply a reach about half that; longer reach would dramatically reduce the network costs. I believe the multi-billion dollars mmWave deployments at Verizon and NTT DOCOMO are going forward because of the newly demonstrated performance. Until recently, most in the industry feared that mmWave would cost so much the economics would not support even a single network. Lowell tells Morgan's Phil Cusick,

"We were at 2000 feet from the receiver in Samsung's Technology Park, we were delivering 1.8 gigs. We said, "Okay, take that truck, drive it around the backside of the building," so there is no possible way you will have a direct line of sight, 2000 feet away, it delivered 1.4 gigabytes of throughput. And the reason was that it took all the different reflections and the computers were able to process and then get that signal back up."

Seeking Alpha transcript.

"You didn't have MIMO, you know, Massive In, Massive Out antenna structures, you didn't have the computing power that you had to do signal processing that you can do today. Small cells are a fraction of what they cost even five years ago. ... I think people when they say, 'Oh, it's just line of sight,' they've forgotten the computer technology that you see in the antenna systems today that you didn't have even five years ago."

I believe the most dramatic is the extraordinary success of beamforming with multiple antennas. mmWave antennas are very small; you can fit 128 of them into a package the size of a processor chip. 

 Adrian Scrase, CTO of ETSI and crucial in 5G standards, reports similar. "Those who are experimenting with the millimetric wave bands (above 30GHz) are saying that in general they perform better than they first thought, ... What they’ve shown from the trials is that they are not line of sight. ..where you don’t have line of sight between two objects, if you can’t see them directly you bounce off an object to cover that particular part of the geography.”  From Mobile Europe, which is doing outstanding work separating 5G facts from hype.

DOCOMO CTO Onoe spoke in April of the remarkable recent results. His CEO now promises 5G to all 128M Japanese by 2023,

In 2023, hundreds of millions will have two gigabit choices, with the advance of 5G, fiber, and G.fast while billions will not have a single decent choice at high speeds.

dave askJuly 2017 Gigabit LTE is real in 2017. So is 5G Massive MIMO. 5G mmWave to fixed antennas is likely 2018, with mobile to follow. China, Japan, Korea, and Verizon U.S. have planned $500B for "5G," with heavy investment expected 2019-2021. 

Being a reporter is a great job for a geek. I'm not an engineer but I've learned from some of the best, including the primary inventors of DSL, cable modems, MIMO, Massive MIMO, and now 5G mmWave. Since 1999, I've done my best to get closer to the truth about broadband.

Wireless One - W1 replaces 5gwnews.com in July 2017. Send questions and news to Dave Burstein, Editor.