Verizon 5G Cells Before and after 2305G is not going to be an expensive network build, according to Verizon, NTT DOCOMO, France Telecom, and Qualcomm. The latest data come from Qualcomm, the only company able to demonstrate a mobile phone sized set of chips. Qualcomm simulations, based on data from several test trials, show existing towers can cover two-thirds of most cities.“Based on our extensive over-the-air testing and channel measurements, significant outdoor coverage  (> 65%) is possible utilizing actual existing LTE sites. The 65% coverage figure is outdoor only. mmWave is blocked by some wall/windows and passes through others. Verizon is using outdoor antennas but hopes to allow customer self-installs indoor. 

Upgrading existing cells first drastically brings down costs. Verizon and I believe AT&T are choosing to do most mmWave from existing cells. The illustration is from a Verizon presentation. It shows a dense area where fewer cells are needed in 5G. In areas like this, the greater capacity of the new tech allows shutting down cells. Verizon hasn't given us enough data to know what percent of the network can have fewer cells. They certainly will not be able to reduce the number in rural areas, where they are needed for coverage. 

Small cells will continue to be built where capacity is needed. They are a relatively cheap way to serve high demand areas. But Verizon will not need the hundreds of thousands of new cells I and many others once expected.  

By the second phase of the rollout, 2023 or 2024, CEO Hans Vestberg predicts equipment costs will be far less, as is typical for telecom equipment. He expects to cover "the entire country" by 2018. 

I'm 90% sure Verizon is on target on costs. They have data from thousands of cells active, far more than any other company. CEO Hans Vestberg of Verizon, CTO Seizo Onoe of NTT DOCOMO  both have said 5G will not raise carrier investment significantly, at least in the next few years, The politicians and salesmen who say otherwise are almost certainly wrong, including FCC Chair Ajit Pai, BNetzA chair Jochen Homann, or OFCOM's Sharon White. Carriers and their lobbyists are making ridiculous claims. For example, Deutsche Telecom estimates its costs to be a multiple of what Verizon is spending - for a better network. 

Indoor performance varies widely depending on the type of walls and windows. Verizon initially will install outdoor antennas. Going forward, Verizon many customers will be able to . CEO Lowell McAdam early this year promised a gigabit for all. In September, the official announcement instead offers “300 megabits to a gigabit.”

It could probably fall back to the better indoor performance of 4G in many locations. The U.S. carriers are deploying “Gig LTE” across the country. That merges three to five spectrum bands using carrier aggregation, 4x4 MIMO antennas, and 256 QAM improved coding. “Gig LTE” has peak speeds up to 1.5 gigabits and realistically delivers 100-500 megabits.

Most 5G is mid-band: 4G hardware with NR software, only a modest improvement. (Speeds often 100-400 megabits.) Verizon is the only large carrier promising gigabit mmWave.  

 

dave ask

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The 3.3-4.2 spectrum should be shared, not exclusively used by one company, concludes an important U.S. Defense Innovation Board report. If more wireless broadband is important, sharing is of course right because shared networks can yield far more

It does work! Verizon's mmWave tests over a gigabit in the real world. 
The $669 OnePlus 7 Pro outclasses the best Apples and probably the new Galaxy 10 or Huawei P30 Pro. Optical zoom, three cameras, liquid cooling, Qualcomm 855 and more.
Korea at 400,000 5G May 15. Chinese "pre-commercial" signing customers, 60,000-120,000 base stations in 2019, million+ remarkable soon. 
5G phones Huawei Mate 20, Samsung Galaxy 10, ZTE Nubia, LG V50, and OPPO are all on sale at China Unicom. All cost US$1,000 to 1,500 before subsidy. Xiaomi promises US$600.
Natural monopoly? Vodafone & Telecom Italia to share 5G, invite all other companies to join.
Huawei predicts 5G phones for US$200 in 2021, $300 even earlier
NY Times says "5G is dangerous" is a Russian plot. Really.
Althiostar raised US$114 million for a virtual RAN system in the cloud. Rakuten, Japan's new #4, is using it and invested.
Ireland is proposing a US$3 billion subsidy for rural fibre that will be much too expensive. Politics.
Telefonica Brazil has 9M FTTH homes passed and will add 6M more within two years. Adjusted for population, that's more than the U.S. The CEO publicly urged other carriers to raise prices together.
CableLabs and Cisco have developed Low Latency XHaul (LLX) with 5-15 ms latency for 5G backhaul,  U.S. cable is soon to come in very strong in wireless. Details 
Korea Telecom won 100,000 5G customers in the first month. SK & LG added 150,000 more. KT has 37,500 cells. planning 90% of the country by yearend. 
The Chinese giants expect 60,000 to 90,000 5G cells by the end of 2019.
China Telecom's Yang Xin warns, "Real large-scale deployment of operators' edge computing may be after 2021." Customers are hard to find.
Reliance Jio registered 97.5% 4G availability across India in Open Signal testing. Best in world.

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Welcome On Oct 1, 2019 Verizon turned on the first $20B 5G mmWave network with extraordinary hopes. The actual early results have been dismal. Good engineers tell me that will change. Meanwhile, the hype is unreal. Time for reporting closer to the truth.

The estimates you hear about 5G costs are wildly exaggerated. Verizon is building the most advanced wireless network while reducing capex. Deutsche Telekom and Orange/France Telecom also confirm they won't raise capex.

Massive MIMO in either 4G or "5G" can increase capacity 3X to 7X, including putting 2.3 GHz to 4.2 GHz to use. Carrier Aggregation, 256 QAM, and other tools double and triple that. Verizon sees cost/bit dropping 40% per year.

Cisco & others see traffic growth slowing to 30%/year or less.  I infer overcapacity almost everywhere.  

Believe it or not, 80% of 5G (mid-band) for several years will be slower than good 4G, which is more developed.