$400B between 2020 & 2030 says MIIT, $180B says SCMP. Morgan Stanley predicts, "We expect China Mobile's 5G capex to commence in 2019 with peak cycle in 2020-23. We project 5G capex of RMB 480 bn (US$70 bn, 14% of revenue) in 2019-23."
There is no longer any doubt that China will do a massive 5G build starting in 2019 or 2020, as soon as the equipment is ready. China's real 5G is likely to cover hundreds of millions by the middle of the next decade, more than anyone else on earth. China will almost certainly be the first to 10M 5G subscribers. China Mobile is among the world leaders in true 5G and expects to upgrade 1% of their million+ base stations by 2010 with mmWave. China Mobile Research is among the best in the world.
But the SCMP projection, "The mainland will have 588.3 million 5G subscribers by 2022, about 39.9 per cent of total mobile users nationwide in that year," could not be met by any plausible deployment of mmWave, Massive MIMO or anything with significantly more capacity than LTE.