A million Chinese bought 5G phones in Huawei's first 14 days on sale. China in August may add three or four million 5G users. In Korea, 2 million signed up in 4 months. Korea has 51 million people. Adjusted for population, 5G  would have 40 million in China or 12 million in the U.S. Germany, Britain, France & Italy have similar populations - and higher incomes - than Korea.

I wrote, Almost all 5G estimates for 2019-2020 need to be doubled. Strategy Analytics, the first mainstream analysis firm to jump in, tentatively raised its 2020 estimate to 80 million in China and 160 million worldwide. My guess is those will prove low. 5G phones are down to US$580 in China and falling to <$300. A reflection:

The best minds of telecom are going mad, starving for data, dragging through the Chinese press for an angry fix. Analysts are doing more than yacketayakking; two have told me their next reports will be very different. These are not teahead joyride neon blinking traffic light,

These are dreams of all who want a great Internet for everyone, no drugs needed. If I'm right, those left behind by a competitor moving faster will face waking nightmares. I hope friends who miss this don't become bleak of brain all drained of brilliance or disappeared into the volcanoes of Mexico leaving behind nothing. I glad no one will be burned alive in their innocent flannel suits on Madison Avenue.

With apologies to Allen Ginzburg, who saw the best minds of his generation destroyed by madness, (very rude link)

The current estimate of some of the best analysts is less than half what SA and I are projecting. Comments very welcome. daveb@dslprime.com

Here's the take from Strategy Analytics

Huawei Holds Key to 5G Market Reaching 160 Million in 2020

Category:

 
August 20, 2019
 
 
 

#China drives #5G smartphone sales to 160M in 2020. The winner in China will be well positioned to take global leadership in 5G. 5G could be the springboard that allows #Huawei to overcome US trade barriers.

Tweet this
 

BOSTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--According to the latest research from Strategy Analytics, global sales of 5G smartphones will reach 160 million in 2020 – if 5G takes off as expected in China. Huawei is best positioned to capture the majority of China’s 5G smartphone sales and could leverage that success to regain its global smartphone standing.

Ken Hyers, Director at Strategy Analytics, said, “As China goes, so goes the 5G ambitions of chip-makers Qualcomm, MediaTek, and Unisoc, all of whom have been applauding the rapid rise in the number of 5G models licensed in recent months.”

Ville Petteri-Ukonaho, Associate Director at Strategy Analytics, added, “Significantly, China holds the key to 5G volumes in 2020. The winner in China will have huge leverage for driving down the learning curve of 5G devices.”

David Kerr, Senior Vice President at Strategy Analytics, added, “Samsung is the undisputed global 5G leader, but currently has just a 1% share of the Chinese smartphone market. China is expected to be the largest 5G smartphone market, with 5G phone sales potentially hitting 80 million in 2020. Huawei has recently accelerated and intensified its efforts in its home market to counter international uncertainty. By Q2 2019 it had expanded its smartphone marketshare there to almost 40%, far outpacing all other competitors. It is well positioned to leverage that dominant position to take a commanding lead in China’s 5G smartphone market in 2020 and beyond.”

Kerr continued, “If China meets its aggressive targets, Huawei could cut deeply into Samsung’s 5G leadership, positioning it for recovery and growth in Western Europe and other global markets.”

Strategy Analytics provides a snapshot analyses for the outlook for 5G smartphone market in this Insight report: 5G Smartphone Sales: China to Drive Rapid Growth in 2020. Clients can read the full report here


a lost battalion of platonic conversationalists jumping down the stoops off fire escapes off windowsills off Empire State out of the moon,

dave ask

Newsfeed

Vivo is selling new the iQOO 5G premium quality phone for US$536.

Lei Jun Xiaomi "5G to have explosive growth starting from Q2 2020"5G to have explosive growth starting from Q2 2020" I say sooner

Verizon CEO Ronan Dunne: >1/2 VZ 5G "will approximate to a good 4G service" Midband in "low hundreds" Mbps

CFO John Stephens says AT&T is going to cut capex soon.

Bharti in India has lost 45M customers who did not want to pay the minimum USS2/month. It's shutting down 3G to free some spectrum for 4G. It is cutting capex, dangerous when the 12 gigabytes/month of use continues to rise.

Huawei in 16 days sold 1,000,000 5G Mate 20s.  

China has over 50,000 upgraded base stations and may have more than 200,000 by yearend 2019. The growth is astonishing and about to accelerate. China will have more 5G than North America and Europe combined for several years.

5G phone prices are down to $580 in China from Oppo. Headed under $300 in 2020 and driving demand.

No one believed me when I wrote in May, 90% of Huawei U.S. purchases can be rapidly replaced and that Huawei would survive and thrive. Financial results are in, with 23% growth and increased phone sales. It is spending $17B on research in 2019, up > 10%. 

5G phones spotted from Sharp and Sony

NTT DOCOMO will begin "pre-commercial service Sept 20 with over 100 live bases. Officially, the commercial start is 2020.

 More newsfeed

----------

Welcome  1,800,000 Koreans bought 5G in the first four months. The demand is there, and most of the technology works. Meanwhile, the hype is unreal. Time for reporting closer to the truth.

The estimates you hear about 5G costs are wildly exaggerated. Verizon is building the most advanced wireless network while reducing capex. Deutsche Telekom and Orange/France Telecom also confirm they won't raise capex.

Massive MIMO in either 4G or "5G" can increase capacity 3X to 7X, including putting 2.3 GHz to 4.2 GHz to use. Carrier Aggregation, 256 QAM, and other tools double and triple that. Verizon sees cost/bit dropping 40% per year.

Cisco & others see traffic growth slowing to 30%/year or less.  I infer overcapacity almost everywhere.  

Believe it or not, 80+% of 5G (mid-band) for several years will be slower than good 4G, which is more developed.