5G Brooklyn Summit

If you can't come to New York, watch the IEEE live stream. April 25-27

Ted Rappaport's Brooklyn 5G may be the best event in the industry. Top people come to NYU Wireless, the leading academic 5G center. Speaking to an audience of peers, they bring the latest and most important research. 

Paulraj, Fettweis, Dina Katabi, are among the world's top researchers.In 2014, AT&T's #2 John Stankey and the CTO of NTT DOCOMO Seizo Onoe convinced me 5G was going to be real.  Both are coming back. Folks at that level wouldn't have flown from around the world unless 5G was closer than I thought.

Listening at the shows, I realized that the massive number of cells for 5G mmWave was likely a competition killer. The general opinion was that only one or two companies could afford to build such large networks. (Encouraging note: The reach of mmWave is proving better than most people expected.)

In 2016, Onoe and others thought volume deployments were unlikely before 2022-2023. By 2017, Onoe had changed his mind and said 2020. At the 2017 event, I gathered datapoints that led me to write Verizon Full Speed Ahead on $20B mmWave Buildout.  8 months later, Verizon hasn't officially announced but I'm confident about the story.

At the first Brooklyn Summit I asked about competition problems for 5G networks based on high frequencies. They generally require fiber backhaul to an enormous number of small cells because of the limited range. The incumbent has an enormous advantage because of all the fiber they own. Stanford's Andrea Goldsmith, one of the best, answered by pointing to the alternative of Bottoms-up networks, supplied through existing DSL and cable backhaul. She was so on target I apologized to her for asking a simplistic question.

The 5G Summit is primarily a technical event but it's time for the policy people to begin listening. 

 

 

dave ask

Newsfeed

The 3.3-4.2 spectrum should be shared, not exclusively used by one company, concludes an important U.S. Defense Innovation Board report. If more wireless broadband is important, sharing is of course right because shared networks can yield far more

It does work! Verizon's mmWave tests over a gigabit in the real world. 
The $669 OnePlus 7 Pro outclasses the best Apples and probably the new Galaxy 10 or Huawei P30 Pro. Optical zoom, three cameras, liquid cooling, Qualcomm 855 and more.
Korea at 400,000 5G May 15. Chinese "pre-commercial" signing customers, 60,000-120,000 base stations in 2019, million+ remarkable soon. 
5G phones Huawei Mate 20, Samsung Galaxy 10, ZTE Nubia, LG V50, and OPPO are all on sale at China Unicom. All cost US$1,000 to 1,500 before subsidy. Xiaomi promises US$600.
Natural monopoly? Vodafone & Telecom Italia to share 5G, invite all other companies to join.
Huawei predicts 5G phones for US$200 in 2021, $300 even earlier
NY Times says "5G is dangerous" is a Russian plot. Really.
Althiostar raised US$114 million for a virtual RAN system in the cloud. Rakuten, Japan's new #4, is using it and invested.
Ireland is proposing a US$3 billion subsidy for rural fibre that will be much too expensive. Politics.
Telefonica Brazil has 9M FTTH homes passed and will add 6M more within two years. Adjusted for population, that's more than the U.S. The CEO publicly urged other carriers to raise prices together.
CableLabs and Cisco have developed Low Latency XHaul (LLX) with 5-15 ms latency for 5G backhaul,  U.S. cable is soon to come in very strong in wireless. Details 
Korea Telecom won 100,000 5G customers in the first month. SK & LG added 150,000 more. KT has 37,500 cells. planning 90% of the country by yearend. 
The Chinese giants expect 60,000 to 90,000 5G cells by the end of 2019.
China Telecom's Yang Xin warns, "Real large-scale deployment of operators' edge computing may be after 2021." Customers are hard to find.
Reliance Jio registered 97.5% 4G availability across India in Open Signal testing. Best in world.

More newsfeed

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Welcome On Oct 1, 2019 Verizon turned on the first $20B 5G mmWave network with extraordinary hopes. The actual early results have been dismal. Good engineers tell me that will change. Meanwhile, the hype is unreal. Time for reporting closer to the truth.

The estimates you hear about 5G costs are wildly exaggerated. Verizon is building the most advanced wireless network while reducing capex. Deutsche Telekom and Orange/France Telecom also confirm they won't raise capex.

Massive MIMO in either 4G or "5G" can increase capacity 3X to 7X, including putting 2.3 GHz to 4.2 GHz to use. Carrier Aggregation, 256 QAM, and other tools double and triple that. Verizon sees cost/bit dropping 40% per year.

Cisco & others see traffic growth slowing to 30%/year or less.  I infer overcapacity almost everywhere.  

Believe it or not, 80% of 5G (mid-band) for several years will be slower than good 4G, which is more developed.