2020 January Situation Report: Extraordinary growth in Asia, very little in Europe. Prices of phones, radios, and service falling. Performance as engineers expected, disappointing to non-engineers. Millimetre wave < 10%, Few Edge servers. No new use cases generating volume sales.. 

150 million: China plans for 2020, on target so far

15 million: Korea 2020 plan. 30% of the population

85%: Koreans covered end of 2019

~10%: Chinese population covered, end of 2019

>400,000: China radios deployed, 2020. Reduced from 600-800,000. Possibly covering half the population

 

1-2: Countries in Europe or North America 10% covered, end of 2019

1-3: Countries in Europe or North America 5-10% covered

126,000: China radios deployed, December 2019

45,000: Radios in Shenzhen, 2020. Complete city covered

9: Companies shipping 5G phones. 3 others, including Apple, announced.

US$285: Price of decent Xiaomi 5G phone. Several others under $500. 

37: Telcos actually selling 5G. Several others claim commercial service. Dozens more by summer, 2020 

50-150 Mbps down: Speed of slow 5G, about the same as 4G per Verizon and AT&T

200 million: Offered slow 600 MHz 5G by T-Mobile US. Speeds lower than good 4G, maybe 20% higher than T-Mobile 4G in the same spectrum. 

 

 

dave ask

@davescomm

Rethinking Jan 27: Coronavirus could invalidate all projections. I reported on AIDS for 2 years. This could be worse because it spreads in air. Let us hope and pray.

Details on all 5G phones, as prices drop to $285 ** All actual 5G networks worldwide ** Facebook ordered to repost Italian fascist page. ** Apple China sales down 35%** Qorvo sees 300M 5G 2020 & 750M 2023 mmWave <10%

** Bharti demands India Gov more than double prices and enforce cartel. Sunil Mittal "Situation is dire. It is a matter of survival for everyone." ** Wi-Fi 6 meets ITU 5G criteria @stephenjcrowley ** Samsung $8B for Chinese memory plants ** Morgan paying billions for Altice fiber

Dec 10 Sprint bringing $300-500 5G phones to US 2020. Nokia, Lenovo, HMD ** H., Apple, and AMD doing 5 nm test runs on TSMC's 5 nm. Early results are 15-30% better than 7 nm ** AT&T low-band 5G built to >65% US. Speeds slower than 4G at launch. ** 

Verizon CEO Ronan Dunne: >1/2 VZ 5G "will approximate to a good 4G service" Midband in "low hundreds" Mbps ** CFO John Stephens says AT&T is going to cut capex soon. ** Huawei in 16 days sold 1,000,000 5G Mate 20s.  

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Welcome  Asia is installing hundreds of thousands of 5G radios and adding 5G subs by the tens of millions. The west is far behind. 200,000,000 in 2020

The demand is there, and most of the technology works. Meanwhile, the hype is unreal. Time for reporting closer to the truth.

I'm Dave Burstein, Editor. I've been reporting telecom since 1999. I love to hear from readers and say thank you when you find an error. daveb@dslprime.com

Also see

analysisbranch.com,

fastnet.news

huaweireport.com