The city of Shenzen will likely have more (robust) 5G radios deployed than either Verizon or AT&T for the next year. Robert Clarke reports Shenzen will have 15,000 5G radios in the next few months and 45,000 by August. One Chinese city has more 5G than the entire United States.

Neither Verizon nor AT&T have provided any real information about coverage but their figures likely will be lower. There is no technical reason for delay. The technology now is working for over 10 million people. The limiting factor is the carriers' investment budgets. In the West, investment has been flat to down.

Verizon & AT&T each have 60-70,000 towers and have virtually stopped adding macrocells. Well under half will be upgraded to mid-band or mmWave 5G. Verizon is adding some small cells, but probably not enough to match Shenzen figure. 

15,000 radios will probably cover about 50% of Shenzen's 13 million people, including more business districts. 45,000 will probably cover over 90%. The Americans will eventually catch up and surpass Shenzen; we have 25 times as many people to serve.

China plans 130,000 bases in 2019 and will probably surpass the goal. 2020 is 600-800,000, covering more than half the population. Both figures are more than the entire world other than China and Korea.

Europe is even further behind.

 

Note: The majority of Verizon and AT&T's "5G" will be low-band for several years. Verizon CEO Ronan Dunne confirms that low-band runs at "4G-like" speeds and is not robust.

 

 

 

dave ask

Newsfeed

Vivo is selling new the iQOO 5G premium quality phone for US$536.

Lei Jun Xiaomi "5G to have explosive growth starting from Q2 2020"5G to have explosive growth starting from Q2 2020" I say sooner

Verizon CEO Ronan Dunne: >1/2 VZ 5G "will approximate to a good 4G service" Midband in "low hundreds" Mbps

CFO John Stephens says AT&T is going to cut capex soon.

Bharti in India has lost 45M customers who did not want to pay the minimum USS2/month. It's shutting down 3G to free some spectrum for 4G. It is cutting capex, dangerous when the 12 gigabytes/month of use continues to rise.

Huawei in 16 days sold 1,000,000 5G Mate 20s.  

China has over 50,000 upgraded base stations and may have more than 200,000 by yearend 2019. The growth is astonishing and about to accelerate. China will have more 5G than North America and Europe combined for several years.

5G phone prices are down to $580 in China from Oppo. Headed under $300 in 2020 and driving demand.

No one believed me when I wrote in May, 90% of Huawei U.S. purchases can be rapidly replaced and that Huawei would survive and thrive. Financial results are in, with 23% growth and increased phone sales. It is spending $17B on research in 2019, up > 10%. 

5G phones spotted from Sharp and Sony

NTT DOCOMO will begin "pre-commercial service Sept 20 with over 100 live bases. Officially, the commercial start is 2020.

 More newsfeed

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Welcome  1,800,000 Koreans bought 5G in the first four months. The demand is there, and most of the technology works. Meanwhile, the hype is unreal. Time for reporting closer to the truth.

The estimates you hear about 5G costs are wildly exaggerated. Verizon is building the most advanced wireless network while reducing capex. Deutsche Telekom and Orange/France Telecom also confirm they won't raise capex.

Massive MIMO in either 4G or "5G" can increase capacity 3X to 7X, including putting 2.3 GHz to 4.2 GHz to use. Carrier Aggregation, 256 QAM, and other tools double and triple that. Verizon sees cost/bit dropping 40% per year.

Cisco & others see traffic growth slowing to 30%/year or less.  I infer overcapacity almost everywhere.  

Believe it or not, 80+% of 5G (mid-band) for several years will be slower than good 4G, which is more developed.