Could easily be 25%. T-Mobile as part of the Sprint deal committed to selling fixed wireless to 8% of the US. It has guaranteed that 90% of Americans will see mobile broadband service at speeds of at least 100Mbps if the deal is approved.

Goldman Sachs estimates Verizon will sell fixed to about 8% of Americans by then. That's ambitious. It's based on Verizon selling 25% of the market from cable in the ~30M homes Verizon will pass. Most are in the 70% of the US where Verizon has no good landline offering. It is pricing aggressively at $50-70, well under cable's price and offering much higher upstream. Verizon is still moving full speed ahead on mmWave, although Consumer CEO Ronan Dunne recently confirmed many consumers in other locations will be connected at lower speeds in mid and low-band spectrum.

CEO Randall Stephenson of AT&T, who will have a great deal of mmWave capacity to sell in 2021, has specifically said he will have a fixed offering. AT&T does not have landlines in over 60% of the US so will almost definitely sell fixed wireless. It has released no numbers yet, but certainly has plans well into the millions.

If T-Mobile-Sprint goes through, Dish is committed to covering 70% of the US by 2023. The primary product will be fixed wireless and Charlie Ergen is betting $10B he will sell a lot of it. He certainly will sell enough to push up this estimate.

If the merger doesn't go through, Sprint will have a massive amount of unsold capacity from the 160 MHz at 2.5 GHz it is lighting across the country. They would be foolish not to sell fixed aggressively. Masa-san is not a fool.

Starry has raised $100M. C Spire, with 1 million mobile customers, is aggressively selling its version of fixed. Small wireless ISPs have over 1 million connections.

I consider anything 4-5 years out a guess, but in this case it is well informed.

 

  

 

dave ask

Newsfeed

Vivo is selling new the iQOO 5G premium quality phone for US$536.

Lei Jun Xiaomi "5G to have explosive growth starting from Q2 2020"5G to have explosive growth starting from Q2 2020" I say sooner

Verizon CEO Ronan Dunne: >1/2 VZ 5G "will approximate to a good 4G service" Midband in "low hundreds" Mbps

CFO John Stephens says AT&T is going to cut capex soon.

Bharti in India has lost 45M customers who did not want to pay the minimum USS2/month. It's shutting down 3G to free some spectrum for 4G. It is cutting capex, dangerous when the 12 gigabytes/month of use continues to rise.

Huawei in 16 days sold 1,000,000 5G Mate 20s.  

China has over 50,000 upgraded base stations and may have more than 200,000 by yearend 2019. The growth is astonishing and about to accelerate. China will have more 5G than North America and Europe combined for several years.

5G phone prices are down to $580 in China from Oppo. Headed under $300 in 2020 and driving demand.

No one believed me when I wrote in May, 90% of Huawei U.S. purchases can be rapidly replaced and that Huawei would survive and thrive. Financial results are in, with 23% growth and increased phone sales. It is spending $17B on research in 2019, up > 10%. 

5G phones spotted from Sharp and Sony

NTT DOCOMO will begin "pre-commercial service Sept 20 with over 100 live bases. Officially, the commercial start is 2020.

 More newsfeed

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Welcome  1,800,000 Koreans bought 5G in the first four months. The demand is there, and most of the technology works. Meanwhile, the hype is unreal. Time for reporting closer to the truth.

The estimates you hear about 5G costs are wildly exaggerated. Verizon is building the most advanced wireless network while reducing capex. Deutsche Telekom and Orange/France Telecom also confirm they won't raise capex.

Massive MIMO in either 4G or "5G" can increase capacity 3X to 7X, including putting 2.3 GHz to 4.2 GHz to use. Carrier Aggregation, 256 QAM, and other tools double and triple that. Verizon sees cost/bit dropping 40% per year.

Cisco & others see traffic growth slowing to 30%/year or less.  I infer overcapacity almost everywhere.  

Believe it or not, 80+% of 5G (mid-band) for several years will be slower than good 4G, which is more developed.