LG Uplus in Korea sees 5G as a once in a decade chance to change market share. Will the earliest to build 5G gain market share in the West? 

Almost certainly, I believe, many people will switch if a different carrier is far ahead in 5G. I cannot prove it, but the enthusiasm among consumers is obvious both East and West. 2M Koreans signed up in 4 months; more than 2M is almost certain in August 2019, the first month in China. Hans Vestberg of Verizon reports people are buying 5G phones even in areas where there is no 5G service.

Britain, Germany, Spain and Italy are probably under 2% coverage in August 2019, little more than pr. The phone prices in the US and Europe are often twice as high as in Asia.

Vivo is shipping a quality 5G phone in China for US$536.

It has taken 600,000 reservations. OPPO & ZTE offer good phones for $700 or less. 8 companies are shipping 5G phones and competition is driving prices down. Nearly all 5G phones in the West are $1,000 and higher. Airfreighting a mobile costs about $1.

The 32% figure comes from a Price Waterhouse study in 2018. It not rigorous enough to consider as more than suggestive.  A survey by MATRIXX Software estimated 24% would switch, but also is good evidence of any particular figure.

Carriers wanting 5G sales should immediately put their top negotiators on a plane to OPPO, Vivo, Xiaomi, and ZTE to get the China price for their customers.






dave ask


Vivo is selling new the iQOO 5G premium quality phone for US$536.

Lei Jun Xiaomi "5G to have explosive growth starting from Q2 2020"5G to have explosive growth starting from Q2 2020" I say sooner

Verizon CEO Ronan Dunne: >1/2 VZ 5G "will approximate to a good 4G service" Midband in "low hundreds" Mbps

CFO John Stephens says AT&T is going to cut capex soon.

Bharti in India has lost 45M customers who did not want to pay the minimum USS2/month. It's shutting down 3G to free some spectrum for 4G. It is cutting capex, dangerous when the 12 gigabytes/month of use continues to rise.

Huawei in 16 days sold 1,000,000 5G Mate 20s.  

China has over 50,000 upgraded base stations and may have more than 200,000 by yearend 2019. The growth is astonishing and about to accelerate. China will have more 5G than North America and Europe combined for several years.

5G phone prices are down to $580 in China from Oppo. Headed under $300 in 2020 and driving demand.

No one believed me when I wrote in May, 90% of Huawei U.S. purchases can be rapidly replaced and that Huawei would survive and thrive. Financial results are in, with 23% growth and increased phone sales. It is spending $17B on research in 2019, up > 10%. 

5G phones spotted from Sharp and Sony

NTT DOCOMO will begin "pre-commercial service Sept 20 with over 100 live bases. Officially, the commercial start is 2020.

 More newsfeed


Welcome  1,800,000 Koreans bought 5G in the first four months. The demand is there, and most of the technology works. Meanwhile, the hype is unreal. Time for reporting closer to the truth.

The estimates you hear about 5G costs are wildly exaggerated. Verizon is building the most advanced wireless network while reducing capex. Deutsche Telekom and Orange/France Telecom also confirm they won't raise capex.

Massive MIMO in either 4G or "5G" can increase capacity 3X to 7X, including putting 2.3 GHz to 4.2 GHz to use. Carrier Aggregation, 256 QAM, and other tools double and triple that. Verizon sees cost/bit dropping 40% per year.

Cisco & others see traffic growth slowing to 30%/year or less.  I infer overcapacity almost everywhere.  

Believe it or not, 80+% of 5G (mid-band) for several years will be slower than good 4G, which is more developed.