Caroline Gabriel 230The pros are whispering, "AI is exciting, but most of it isn't ready to put to use." Caroline Gabriel, one of the very best analysts in wireless, surveyed many major operators and discovered a huge gap between what is being delivered by automation and the many brave words we hear so often.  She writes, 

Plans to implement advanced machine learning-based automation in 5G networks are grinding to a halt, with operators slowing investment and reducing their ambitions. ... most plans had gone backwards. Globally, only 18% expect to have more than 40% of functions automated by the end of this year. 

Last year 21% of the same operators said they would have more than 60% of processes automated* by the end of 2020. Those hitting this 60% mark fell to 14% in this year’s study, suggesting respondents had been over-optimistic previously or that projects are snagged, or harder than they seemed.

[Without effective automation, the] business case for 5G in the period to 2024 will be severely compromised – resulting in higher costs, less network flexibility, lower ROI on 5G RAN and on virtualization." 

There is no doubt machine learning can do some remarkable things. Every day, I read articles on four Chinese news sites in Google translation. I can almost always understand the articles. Google translate is the culmination of a decade of work by a tribe of researchers worldwide over a decade. When I first tested the Chinese to English Google a few years ago, it was godawful. 

She asks, "Is it a distant dream?" So far, the evidence is that most forms of RAN automation are not ready for prime time. What I've seen so far includes some brilliant ideas and exciting trade show demonstrations. I'm sure some of them will work well in a few years. Huawei is spending hundreds of millions on AI or maybe more. I expect some interesting results coming fairly rapidly. 

Caroline knows the problem is, "A vast complexity in the network with a huge number of new elements. This means modern networks are becoming hard for humans to understand, predict or manage." If I read her correctly, she believes many of the solutions will be quickly found if enough money and energy were applied. I don't know that's it's been proven that more money will yield quicker solutions.**

Gabriel believes high frequencies and densification are essential for 5G. That will be true at the point at which traffic demand outstrips what the carriers can sensibly deliver with mmWave and more density. Ted Rappaport, who virtually invented millimetre wave 5G, believes that point is coming soon. The engineers building 22 of the 24 5G networks currently deploying disagree. They are building 5G in mid-band with only modest densification. They believe that will be enough for practical purposes for a number of years. 

Traffic growth has been falling rapidly in the developed world.  In the UK it is down to 25% and in Germany under 37%. Cisco predicts the U.S. will fall to 31% in 2021. Last year, I thought most telcos would profit from the extra capacity of mmWave. 

We will see. 

*The functions the operators are referring to are mostly much simpler than the full RAN automation

** See The Mythical Man Month

Published    WIRELESS WATCH

RAN automation is central to the 5G case—but is it a distant dream? – EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Free Download

Automation and SON deployments and trends 2018-2025

Plans to implement advanced machine learning based automation in 5G networks are grinding to a halt, with operators slowing investment and reducing their ambitions. This comes from a report out this week from Rethink Technology Research in its RAN Research service entitled, “RAN automation is central to the 5G case – but is it a distant dream?” Automation and SON deployments, trends to 2025.

Failure to properly see through the full automation of 5G will mean much of the business case for installing it in the first place will be lost.

Operators surveyed for this report are now less ambitious in planning automation, and yet in 5G it is not an option – the network is so complex that it can no longer be properly managed by humans.  Delay Automation and SON and you delay 5G.

Automation targets for completion have now fallen back into the mid-2020s, and without it 5G will not deliver the huge reductions in operating costs that it needs to.

Most of the issues holding operators back relate to fear of organizational upheaval; immaturity of the technology; and an overall lack of urgency from operators.

Some operators, notably in the US and advanced parts of Asia are making good progress, but others are only making limited investment in Automation and their timescales to adopt it at scale have lengthened since our survey on this last year.

“If operators fail to automate fully, their business case for 5G in the period to 2024 will be severely compromised – resulting in higher costs, less network flexibility, lower ROI on 5G RAN and on virtualization,” concludes the report.

Operators are taking a cautious approach in the near term. When asked what percentage of their RAN planning, deployment, management and optimization processes they expected to automate at various time points up to 2025 most plans had gone backwards. Globally, only 18% expect to have more than 40% of functions automated by the end of this year.

Last year 21% of the same operators said they would have more than 60% of processes automated by the end of 2020. Those hitting this 60% mark fell to 14% in this year’s study, suggesting respondents had been over-optimistic previously or that projects are snagged, or harder than they seemed.

There are three key operational benefits of running 5G which change the economics of the network, but which make RAN automation more critical to the mobile business case.

Those three are, densification; use of complex antenna arrays, including Massive MIMO to place 5G in high frequency spectrum; and virtualization of the packet core and gateways.

But these trends all introduce a vast complexity in the network with a huge number of new elements. This means modern networks are becoming hard for humans to understand, predict or manage and hence need machine learning driven automation. Although operators acknowledge this, they are now sliding backwards on previous plans.

Failure to prepare automation will result in lower OPEX reductions than predicted, and could potentially completely derail 5G.

dave ask

Newsfeed

CFO John Stephens says AT&T is going to cut capex soon.

Bharti in India has lost 45M customers who did not want to pay the minimum US#2/month. It's shutting down 3G to free some spectrum for 4G. It is cutting capex, dangerous when the 12 gigabytes/month of use continues to rise.

Huawei in 6 days sold 300,000 5G Mate 20s. Delivery begins on 8/16. 

China has over 50,000 upgraded base stations and may have more than 200,000 by yearend 2019. The growth is astonishing and about to accelerate. China will have more 5G than North America and Europe combined for several years.

5G phone prices are down to $580 in China from Oppo. Headed under $300 in 2020 and driving demand.

No one believed me when I wrote in May, 90% of Huawei U.S. purchases can be rapidly replaced and that Huawei would survive and thrive. Financial results are in, with 23% growth and increased phone sales. It is spending $17B on research in 2019, up > 10%. 

5G phones spotted from Sharp and Sony

NTT DOCOMO will begin "pre-commercial service Sept 20 with over 100 live bases. Officially, the commercial start is 2020.

 More newsfeed

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Welcome  1,800,000 Koreans bought 5G in the first four months. The demand is there, and most of the technology works. Meanwhile, the hype is unreal. Time for reporting closer to the truth.

The estimates you hear about 5G costs are wildly exaggerated. Verizon is building the most advanced wireless network while reducing capex. Deutsche Telekom and Orange/France Telecom also confirm they won't raise capex.

Massive MIMO in either 4G or "5G" can increase capacity 3X to 7X, including putting 2.3 GHz to 4.2 GHz to use. Carrier Aggregation, 256 QAM, and other tools double and triple that. Verizon sees cost/bit dropping 40% per year.

Cisco & others see traffic growth slowing to 30%/year or less.  I infer overcapacity almost everywhere.  

Believe it or not, 80+% of 5G (mid-band) for several years will be slower than good 4G, which is more developed.