Nokias chosen use cases 230

According to a thoughtful 47-page analysis by the world's #3 manufacturer of 5G, Nokia. Looking at the top eight 5G use cases, Nokia confirms

"All are feasible with 4G."

 The inference: 5G is not essential for most of the progress in these areas*. As I looked further into each of these areas, it became clear none of them are likely to drive demand growth sufficient to raise carrier revenue significantly. **

5G will be good for the industry because it will lower costs and increase capacity, not because of new uses. In addition, most consumers believe the myth of 5G miracles and are likely to buy. One million Koreans signed on in the first two months.

5G phone prices will drop significantly sometime in 2020; China Mobile and Huawei predict prices from US$150 to US$300. At that point, I expect very rapid demand growth.

As Dean Bubley points out, we already would be seeing in the 4G era significant growth in any of these applications which have high demand in the near term. We aren't. Actually, the rate of wireless traffic growth in the West has been falling. Cisco, Ericsson, and your author expect the growth rate to continue to mostly fall. 

My guess is this will not change significantly past the 4-5 years of this report. The rate of technology change communications is so high any projections past 3-5 years are likely to be wrong. 

In particular, autonomous cars and video do not appear likely to require bandwidth that would break the trendline. Several applications likely to grow slowly are worth cultivating for future possibilities, especially AR & VR. 

Here are two illustrations. The first is from STL, showing estimates of low growth. Almost all analysts have similar conclusions. The second is the Nokia chart, larger.

*The inference would not be true if the 4G networks will run out of capacity. Fortunately, 4G technology already deploying can raise capacity 10X to 25X at a reasonable cost. Traffic growth is slowing significantly, except in China and India. Cisco estimates wireless traffic growth in the U.S. will fall to 30%/year by 2021. I have many confirming datapoints. Conclusion: Within today's carrier capital budgets, almost all Western carriers can supply the capacity needed through at least the middle of next decade. 

**The possible exception is fixed wireless, especially where Verizon will offer gigabit mmWave. In most countries, fixed wireless will likely be limited.

 

 STL slow growth chart 650

Nokias chosen use cases 650

 

 

 

dave ask

Newsfeed

Vivo is selling new the iQOO 5G premium quality phone for US$536.

Lei Jun Xiaomi "5G to have explosive growth starting from Q2 2020"5G to have explosive growth starting from Q2 2020" I say sooner

Verizon CEO Ronan Dunne: >1/2 VZ 5G "will approximate to a good 4G service" Midband in "low hundreds" Mbps

CFO John Stephens says AT&T is going to cut capex soon.

Bharti in India has lost 45M customers who did not want to pay the minimum USS2/month. It's shutting down 3G to free some spectrum for 4G. It is cutting capex, dangerous when the 12 gigabytes/month of use continues to rise.

Huawei in 16 days sold 1,000,000 5G Mate 20s.  

China has over 50,000 upgraded base stations and may have more than 200,000 by yearend 2019. The growth is astonishing and about to accelerate. China will have more 5G than North America and Europe combined for several years.

5G phone prices are down to $580 in China from Oppo. Headed under $300 in 2020 and driving demand.

No one believed me when I wrote in May, 90% of Huawei U.S. purchases can be rapidly replaced and that Huawei would survive and thrive. Financial results are in, with 23% growth and increased phone sales. It is spending $17B on research in 2019, up > 10%. 

5G phones spotted from Sharp and Sony

NTT DOCOMO will begin "pre-commercial service Sept 20 with over 100 live bases. Officially, the commercial start is 2020.

 More newsfeed

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Welcome  1,800,000 Koreans bought 5G in the first four months. The demand is there, and most of the technology works. Meanwhile, the hype is unreal. Time for reporting closer to the truth.

The estimates you hear about 5G costs are wildly exaggerated. Verizon is building the most advanced wireless network while reducing capex. Deutsche Telekom and Orange/France Telecom also confirm they won't raise capex.

Massive MIMO in either 4G or "5G" can increase capacity 3X to 7X, including putting 2.3 GHz to 4.2 GHz to use. Carrier Aggregation, 256 QAM, and other tools double and triple that. Verizon sees cost/bit dropping 40% per year.

Cisco & others see traffic growth slowing to 30%/year or less.  I infer overcapacity almost everywhere.  

Believe it or not, 80+% of 5G (mid-band) for several years will be slower than good 4G, which is more developed.