My take is that none of the five network vendors is ahead, but Ericsson certainly is starting to see results from concentrating on 5G.  Frederico Rigoni, their Italian lead, is showing a new swagger after a profitable quarter. He tells Mila Fiordalisi of CorCom, "Ericsson is first in the world on 5G."  He believes Ericsson's market share has recently climbed from 28% to 30%, partly on strength in the U.S. They've raised their R & D spending from 14.4% to 18.8%, almost all on wireless. Ericsson scored a major victory at Telstra, staving off Nokia.

"On the network front everything is ready for 5G." Rigoni is hopeful of significant sales in 2019. "We are receiving requests from other operators of our customers to accelerate the planned roadmap." Like everyone else, he's waiting on phones.

I'm skeptical of claims like this because each of the vendors can find a way to say they are first. Huawei, with a US$15 billion research budget has by far the broadest line.  Their Finnish deployment at Elisa went commercial before Verizon and I have data. Samsung pioneered 5G research back in 2011. Nokia is always a contender. ZTE wins contracts over Huawei in China. Chinese government banks have poured in US$10 billion to make sure the company thrives. They will have the greatest growth, 2019 over 2018.

Rigoni made a possibly misleading comment. "There is no doubt that mobile data traffic grows year by year in an incredible way. Worldwide there was 52% more traffic than last year." One of the key factors for the industry in Europe and the U.S. is that growth is slowing. Cisco expects it to fall to 30% in the U.S. in 2021. VP Thomas Noren's claim, "Traffic continues to double every 18 months," no longer applies in the U.S. or most of Europe. Italy, where Xavi is an aggressive 4th operator, could be an exception.

Finding enough customers is far more important than building capacity at most telcos today.  

dave ask

@davescomm

Rethinking Jan 27: Coronavirus could invalidate all projections. I reported on AIDS for 2 years. This could be worse because it spreads in air. Let us hope and pray.

Details on all 5G phones, as prices drop to $285 ** All actual 5G networks worldwide ** Facebook ordered to repost Italian fascist page. ** Apple China sales down 35%** Qorvo sees 300M 5G 2020 & 750M 2023 mmWave <10%

** Bharti demands India Gov more than double prices and enforce cartel. Sunil Mittal "Situation is dire. It is a matter of survival for everyone." ** Wi-Fi 6 meets ITU 5G criteria @stephenjcrowley ** Samsung $8B for Chinese memory plants ** Morgan paying billions for Altice fiber

Dec 10 Sprint bringing $300-500 5G phones to US 2020. Nokia, Lenovo, HMD ** H., Apple, and AMD doing 5 nm test runs on TSMC's 5 nm. Early results are 15-30% better than 7 nm ** AT&T low-band 5G built to >65% US. Speeds slower than 4G at launch. ** 

Verizon CEO Ronan Dunne: >1/2 VZ 5G "will approximate to a good 4G service" Midband in "low hundreds" Mbps ** CFO John Stephens says AT&T is going to cut capex soon. ** Huawei in 16 days sold 1,000,000 5G Mate 20s.  

----------

Welcome  Asia is installing hundreds of thousands of 5G radios and adding 5G subs by the tens of millions. The west is far behind. 200,000,000 in 2020

The demand is there, and most of the technology works. Meanwhile, the hype is unreal. Time for reporting closer to the truth.

I'm Dave Burstein, Editor. I've been reporting telecom since 1999. I love to hear from readers and say thank you when you find an error. daveb@dslprime.com

Also see

analysisbranch.com,

fastnet.news

huaweireport.com