CTIA wireless 2016 2017 230Even at twice that rate, every prediction is blown out of the water. While "experts" and especially policy people worry about growth rates they think are 50% and 70% per year, the industry has long known the real growth is falling well below that. Cisco's VNI, the best public forecast, has projected growth to fall to 30%. The higher rates were an anomaly brought on by the introduction of smartphones. As smartphones approached saturation, the growth has been falling.

CTIA, the U.S. wireless association, combines the figures direct from Verizon, AT&T, Sprint, T-Mobile, and enough others to cover over 95% of usage. It should be highly reliable. However, I suspect there is an anomaly in the data for some reason; the individual companies have been telling Wall Street they have higher growth. As it is, I assume there is an artifact of a changed definition or something and the rate will go up in the next year's report.

Yet another DC type got this wrong two weeks ago. "Americans’ appetite for mobile services is insatiable." Hogwash. 

CTIA also reports 15,000 more cell sites. That's consistent with other reports that the telcos are finally deploying. Separately, CTIA predicts 300,000-400,000 small cells in the next three years. Verizon's recent results show much better than expected rate/reach for millimeter wave, so that is probably a high estimate. Subscribers are about flat. 

The absolute growth remains substantial because the base is higher. Fortunately, wireless productivity is going up even faster. One Verizon estimate is 40% per year.

It has not escaped my notice this data immediately suggests policy reconsideration. 

Substantially rewritten August 8 with new data

From CTIA. 

CTIA 2016 2017 U 650

dave ask

@davescomm

Rethinking Jan 27: Coronavirus could invalidate all projections. I reported on AIDS for 2 years. This could be worse because it spreads in air. Let us hope and pray.

Details on all 5G phones, as prices drop to $285 ** All actual 5G networks worldwide ** Facebook ordered to repost Italian fascist page. ** Apple China sales down 35%** Qorvo sees 300M 5G 2020 & 750M 2023 mmWave <10%

** Bharti demands India Gov more than double prices and enforce cartel. Sunil Mittal "Situation is dire. It is a matter of survival for everyone." ** Wi-Fi 6 meets ITU 5G criteria @stephenjcrowley ** Samsung $8B for Chinese memory plants ** Morgan paying billions for Altice fiber

Dec 10 Sprint bringing $300-500 5G phones to US 2020. Nokia, Lenovo, HMD ** H., Apple, and AMD doing 5 nm test runs on TSMC's 5 nm. Early results are 15-30% better than 7 nm ** AT&T low-band 5G built to >65% US. Speeds slower than 4G at launch. ** 

Verizon CEO Ronan Dunne: >1/2 VZ 5G "will approximate to a good 4G service" Midband in "low hundreds" Mbps ** CFO John Stephens says AT&T is going to cut capex soon. ** Huawei in 16 days sold 1,000,000 5G Mate 20s.  

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Welcome  Asia is installing hundreds of thousands of 5G radios and adding 5G subs by the tens of millions. The west is far behind. 200,000,000 in 2020

The demand is there, and most of the technology works. Meanwhile, the hype is unreal. Time for reporting closer to the truth.

I'm Dave Burstein, Editor. I've been reporting telecom since 1999. I love to hear from readers and say thank you when you find an error. daveb@dslprime.com

Also see

analysisbranch.com,

fastnet.news

huaweireport.com