TSMC 230TSMC is rushing to produce 10's of millions of chips for the next iPhone, taking up nearly all their 2018 capacity at the new 7 nm node. Qualcomm and possibly Huawei have the chips at an advanced stage of design and should have sample chips in the next few months.

Rick Merritt at EE Times reports, "TSMC is in volume production of 7-nm chips today with more than 50 tapeouts expected this year. It’s making CPUs, GPUs, AI accelerators, cryptocurrency mining ASICs, networking, gaming, 5G, and automotive chips."

.

Rick adds, "The new normal for performance gains and power reductions generally fall in a 10% to 20% range, a reality that makes the new packaging and specialty processes increasingly important." In other words, Moore's Law ain't dead but it's slowing down. TSMC is already building the 5 nm plant and taking delivery of EUV lithography gear. Both TSMC and Samsung have committed to $20B 3 nm fabs early next decade.

The first millimeter wave chips are likely to be power-hungry and may run hot. Linley estimates it will require as much as 10X the processing power as early LTE chips. The radio frequency front end will need to work from 600 MHz to 30 GHz or more. Carriers will require many more bands, puching the state of the art. Thousands of engineers are required.

TSMC's next five years

In 2019, TSMC expects to produce 10's of millions of seven nanometer chips, maybe more. Some will be made with EUV lithography.  Numerous inprovements will come. They say, "Compared to its 10nm FinFET process, TSMC's 7nm FinFET features 1.6X logic density, ~20% speed improvement, and ~40% power reduction. TSMC set another industry record by launching two separate 7nm FinFET tracks: one optimized for mobile applications, the other for high performance computing applications."

5 nm "risk production" is expected late in 2019. "MC's 5nm Fin Field-Effect Transistor (FinFET) process technology is optimized for both mobile and high performance computing applications. It is scheduled to start risk production in the second quarter of 2019. Compared to its 7nm FinFET Plus process, TSMC's 5nm FinFET adopts EUV Lithography for more critical layers to reduce multi-pattern process complexity while achieving aggressive die area scaling." Merritt expects, "Compared to the initial 7 nm without EUV, the 5-nm node promises a 1.8x greater density than 7 nm. However, it is only expected to reduce power by up to 20% or raise speeds by about 15%, perhaps 25% using Extremely Low Threshold Voltage (ELTV),"

 6G anyone?

 

dave askAugust 2018 Verizon's $20B 5G build is starting to add customers in 2018. Gigabit LTE & Massive MIMO became real in 2017 and enow expanding worldwide. Almost all the other "5G" is mid-band, 70%-90% slower + hype. Europe is mostly pr. The term 5G has been bastardized, unfortunately.

Being a reporter is a great job for a geek. I'm not an engineer but I've learned from some of the best, including the primary inventors of DSL, cable modems, MIMO, Massive MIMO, and now 5G mmWave. Since 1999, I've done my best to get closer to the truth about broadband.

Send questions and news to Dave Burstein, Editor. I always want to hear from you, especially if you catch a mistake.

-------------------

 5G Why Verizon thinks differently and what to do about it is a new report I wrote for STL Partners and their clients.

STL Partners, a British consulting outfit I respect, commissioned me to ask why. That report is now out. If you're a client, download it here. If not, and corporate priced research is interesting to you, ask me to introduce you to one of the principals.

It was fascinating work because the answers aren't obvious. Lowell McAdam's company is spending $20B to cover 30M+ homes in the first stage. The progress in low & mid-band, both "4G" and "5G," has been remarkable. In most territories, millimeter wave will not be necessary to meet expected demand.

McAdam sees a little further. mmWave has 3-4X the capacity of low and mid-band. He sees an enormous marketing advantage: unlimited services, even less congestion, reputation as the best network. Verizon testing found mmWave rate/reach was twice what had been estimated. All prior cost estimates need revision.

My take: even if mmWave doesn't fit in your current budget, telcos should expand trials and training to be ready as things change. The new cost estimates may be low enough to change your mind.